A belt is on the line tonight at Madison Square Garden.
It all started when Nate Diaz beat Anthony Pettis by unanimous decision back in August; upon having his arm raised he called out Jorge Masvidal. Check out the video below:
“With this belt I want to defend it against Jorge Masvidal… All respect to the man but there ain’t no gangsters in this game anymore. There ain’t nobody who done it right but me and him. I know my man’s a gangster but he ain’t no west coast gangster.” – Nate Diaz.
Thus the BMF belt is born. And while the road to this fight has been rocky we’re here and I’m expecting a thrilling fight (that I won’t get to watch until tomorrow because I’ll be at a wedding this evening.) That said let’s look at some odds and plays for the main event.
Moneyline: Nate Diaz (+130), Jorge Masvidal (-159)
If I had to pick a play on the moneyline, give me Diaz. While he has a black belt in jiu-jitsu under Cesar Gracie, he also has some underrated boxing skills and the best cardio in the game. There’s a lot to like watching Diaz fight, I could count on one hand the amount of boring fights he’s been in, see the 8 Fight of the Night bonuses, one Performance of the Night bonus and 5 Submission of the Night bonuses.
Masvidal, on the other hand, is a bad man. His last four wins have come by knockout. He has two losses in his last six fights by unanimous decision and split decision to Stephen Thompson and Demian Maia respectively. There’s a reason Diaz called out Masvidal, the two are ruthless, thrilling fighters and will put on a show.
By taking the Diaz moneyline it isn’t a slight to Masvidal. I love watching him fight, I think that Diaz proved he can take a hit – he has no history of being knocked out (first and only knockout loss was in 2013) – and if this fight goes the distance I trust his gas tank over Masvidal’s.
Jorge Masvidal by decision (+200)
If you think Masvidal will have two judges score him to win this is good money.
Jorge Masvidal by unanimous decision (+275)
If you think Masvidal will have all three judges score him to win this is better money.
Nate Diaz by decision (+275)
Same as the first one.
Nate Diaz by unanimous decision (+400)
Same as the second one.
Don’t want to pick and think the fight will go five rounds? This is safe.
Any of these are fine bets in my opinion. In a perfect world, for me, the fight goes for five non-stop entertaining rounds and a bloody fighter will have the BMF belt around his waist. I’m leaning toward Diaz but this could be the fight of the year and anything can happen.
— UFC (@ufc) November 1, 2019
Quick hits for other fights
Kelvin Gastelum (-240) vs. Darren Till (+188)
Gastelum money line. Steep price but I think he’ll be more prepared for this fight considering Till didn’t get his work visa until late this week.
For those that like Till, taking him by decision at +375 is good value.
Vicente Luque (-104) vs. Stephen Thompson (-118)
Bang the Thompson moneyline here.
If you’re trying to get a little frisky, Thompson by KO, TKO, submission or DQ is going off at +500.
Kevin Lee (+125) vs. Gregor Gillespie (-155)
This one is hard to call. I don’t really have strong feelings about either of these fighters. If you’re looking at the moneyline I like Lee’s value over Gillespie’s.
If you look at winning method Lee is going off at +225 for decision and Gillespie at +150. Take your pick at that point, the value is good both ways depending on who you prefer.