Anthony Mazziotti
Love him or hate him, Jon Jones returns to the octagon this Saturday, February 8, to fight rising star Dominick Reyes at UFC 247 in Houston.
You know Bones: the youngest champ in UFC history, arguably the most controversial fighter in the promotion’s history, the man who hasn’t lost since 2009 save for a no contest in 2017 for testing positive for turinabol. You likely don’t know Reyes, the fourth ranked light heavyweight who is undefeated in his five UFC fights , highlighted by a knockout finish over Chris Weidman, a split decision win over Volkan Oezdemir and a unanimous decision win over Ovince Saint-Preux.
Needless to say, the moneyline for this fight is heavy in Jones’ favor -455 compared to Reyes +340. Nothing against Reyes but Jones is the best fighter I’ve ever seen. A scum bag? Most definitely. The best fighter in UFC history? The case is there.
Without further ado here are the plays I like for the main event:
Total rounds: Over 2.5 (-177)
I like to get plus money where I can but this seems like a lock to me.
The fight to go the distance: Yes (+165)
Jones’ last two fights have gone to the judge’s score card while two of Reyes’ last three have gone to the score card as well.
Winning method: Jones by decision (+225)
Gonna keep with the trend – Reyes has never lost a fight in his MMA career; Jones hasn’t lost since 2009. I think “Bones” keeps the streak alive, eking out a decision against an impressive up-and-comer.
In the co-main event, Valentina Shevchenko looks to defend her women’s flyweight belt against Katlyn Chookagian. Shevchenko is a heavy favorite (-1225) over Chookagian (+725).
Shevchenko has defended her belt twice since winning it in December 2018. She’s only lost twice in the UFC, both times against the legend Amanda Nunes. Valentina has faced a murderer’s row of fighters in her own right, holding wins over Liz Carmouche, Jessica Eye, Holly Holm, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, and Julianna Pena.
Chookagian, a Quakerstown native, has losses to both Eye and Carmouche but is 4-1 since returning to flyweight from bantamweight.
While I will be rooting for Chookagian in spirit because of local ties, it feels like this one might be insurmountable.
The only play I like for this fight is the fight to go the distance at -167 or Shevchenko by decision at -139. Shevchenko is so heavily favored it doesn’t really make sense to do anything else. I mean if you wanna throw a couple bucks on the Chookagian moneyline because anything can happen so be it, but this is the only real play for this fight.
If you’re feeling spicy, parlaying a Jones decision with a Shevchenko decision pays out at +459.
The third fight I’m looking forward to is Derrick Lewis vs. Ilir Latifi. Lewis is currently favored -250 to +195 on the moneyline. Famous for saying “my balls was hot,” in a post-game press conference, Lewis will be fighting in front of his hometown crowd.
I like Lewis by knockout in this fight because he has 10 knockout finishes in the UFC. This, however, only has -134 odds. Add this to the parlay of Shevchenko decision and Jones decision and you have +878 odds. Or don’t, it’s your call.
You can follow Anthony Mazziotti on Twitter (@AntMazziotti) and e-mail him at [email protected].
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