Ray Hagan
Hello ladies and gentleman, welcome to another round of Beat of the East. Last time out we reviewed Week 3. Now to Week 4. In the here and now, I’m going to preview this week’s NFC East action. You’re going to get my take on the games as well as predicted score.
Let’s get to it.
Dallas at San Francisco
This game should not even be a contest. The Cowboys are a 3 point road favorite against the 49ers. But with Dez Bryant’s status up in the air for the game it certainly brings some intrigue. Dallas’ offense is 8th in the league to this point in yards per game, which matches up nicely with San Francisco’s 20th ranked defense. Dallas should be able to move the ball fairly well even without Bryant. Cole Beasley has been more on Prescott’s radar in the early goings anyway, but not as much as you might think. Despite having 9 more catches than Bryant and 63 more yards, Beasley has only been targeted twice more. The difference is that Beasley has been used on more shorter intermediate routes where he can run after the catch as can be seen in his 52 yard edge on Bryant in that category. Losing Bryant would not be good for the Cowboys’ offense, but it would hardly be fatal. This is going to be a game that focuses on Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys’ rushing attack. Dallas is 6th in the league in rushing yards and San Francisco ranks 23rd in rushing yards allowed. Elliott had his best game as a pro last week and while he didn’t reach pay dirt Prescott, Dunbar, and Alfred Morris all did.
We should all be keeping low expectations for Chip Kelly’s 49ers in this game. They don’t have much chance in my estimation. San Francisco is just outclassed in my opinion. I’ve never been sold on Blaine Gabbert, I’ve never understood why a guy who put up worse college numbers than Chase Daniel at the same school was drafted 5 rounds ahead of him. Well I do, because NFL teams are often obsessed with size and measurable over what happens on the field. That’s not to say Daniel should have been a first round pick, only that Gabbert sure as hell shouldn’t have been. But back to the issue at hand, while the offenses are scoring at a similar clip (25.7 for Dallas vs. 24.3 for San Francisco) the defenses are giving up far different rates. San Francisco is 23rd in points allowed at 27.7 per game and Dallas is 10th at 20.0 per game.
Using my handy scientific method of comparing the scoring and points allowed of each team vs. the league average we come up with the PhillyInfluencer.com predicted score of Dallas 31, San Francisco 21.
If betting were legal: Take the Cowboys laying the points.
New York at Minnesota
This game is going to come down to whether or not the Giants can avoid turnovers. The G-Men have the second worst turnover ratio in the league at minus 6. The Vikings have the best in the league at plus 8. On paper that’s a nightmare matchup for the Giants. They’ve struggled holding onto the ball over the first three weeks. In the last Beat of the East column we covered how impossible it is for the Giants to sustain their success while giving up turnovers at the rate that they have been. Now they run into the Vikings. That’s not a good combination. So the question then remains what can the Giants do to win this game? They’re going to have to keep the anemic Minnesota offense even more inept than they have been. The Vikings are averaging just over 21 points per game. But they’ve only had 3 offensive touchdowns in 3 games. They’ve had 3 combined defensive and special teams touchdowns in that same span. The keys for this game for the Giants are going to be to limit turnovers, and keep the Vikings offense in quicksand. With Adrian Peterson sidelined by a knee injury the Giants’ job is a bit easier than it would have been otherwise. The other advantage that the Giants have is that they have some familiarity with Sam Bradford thanks to his time with the Eagles.
The problem that they have is that I believe that the Vikings defense is as good as any in football. They rank 6th in yards allowed, 3rd in points allowed, and second in takeaways. These are all bad signs for the Giants. I think that this is going to be a sloppy, ugly game. I think that the Minnesota defense will make the Giants’ offense look worse than it is and I think that the Vikings’ offense will make the Giants’ defense look better than it is.
Running the stats through our predicted score analysis gives us Minnesota 19, New York 12 in a very sloppy defensively oriented affair.
If betting were legal: Take the Vikings giving the points.
Washington at Cleveland
This is a really interesting game. With no McCown or RGIII last week the Cleveland offense unleashed Terrelle Pryor on the world. Pryor ran for 31 yards, threw for 35 yards and caught 8 balls for 144 yards. He also had a rushing touchdown. Now, much like the Wildcat debuting against the Patriots years ago Cleveland had the element of surprise last week in Miami. Still that was against a team that is much better defensively than Washington. Miami is surrendering 8 points less per game than the ‘Skins and only won the last game because Cody Parkey did his best Alex Henery impression and couldn’t kick a beachball into the ocean from the beach. Because of that combination of things this is a very interesting matchup. The Washington offense has improved each week. Scoring 16 points week 1, 23 week 2 and now 29 last week in their win over the Giants.
Cleveland, after a drubbing week one against our beloved Eagles has quietly been competitive each week after. They blew a 20-2 lead against Baltimore and were one Parkey shank away from winning against Miami. So why is this team an 8 point underdog in Washington according to the experts in Vegas? The answer is, I don’t really know. Cousins had his first interception free game of the season last week while throwing for nearly 300 yards and adding 2 TDs. Perhaps the oddsmakers think that we’re closer to seeing the Cousins from last year than the Cousins from weeks 1 & 2. Maybe they don’t think that the Browns can sustain the Pryor-centric offense which is a legitimate concern. Maybe they think that having a third string quarterback share duties with a wide receiver at the game’s most vital position is a death sentence. Of course that didn’t stop the Patriots from blanking Houston last week with a third string QB and Edelman as the emergency backup…but I digress.
I think at the end of the day Vegas has this one wrong. I think they’re giving Washington far too much credit and Cleveland not nearly enough. While the predicted score analysis has Washington 28, Cleveland 24 I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cleveland pull out a big win.
If betting were legal: Take Cleveland plus the points.
3 Up / 3 Down
Each week I’m going to take a look at three of the NFC East players that are flying high, and three that have come crashing to Earth a bit recently.
3 Up:
1. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas
Thanks to his 140 yards last week Elliott is now beginning to show exactly what the Cowboys made him the 4th overall selection in this year’s draft. He’s tied for second in the league in rushing yards, just 24 yards behind league leader LeGarrette Blount (who is likely to see his production dip when Tom Brady returns) and looks like the real deal. More importantly the fumbling issues that led to Elliott spending time on the bench in week two didn’t rear their head in week 3.
2. Kirk Cousins, QB, Washington
We covered it a little bit in the previous section, but Cousins played the kind of game that Washington desperately needed him to play in a huge division win over the Giants. While Eli Manning was busy throwing key interceptions on two of the Giants’ final three drives (and settling for a field goal in the third) Cousins was doing just enough to win. For an 0-2 team coming in, that was enough last week.
3. Sterling Shepard, WR, New York
While Odell Beckham rightfully is the receiver who draws the most attention from opposing defensive players, coordinators and the media, it’s Shepard who has done something in two of his first three NFL games that Beckham hasn’t done all season…score a touchdown. Shepard has only 3 fewer catches on ELEVEN fewer targets. He’s also managed to score twice and have only 47 yards fewer while maintaining a nearly equal yards per catch average. He’s legit.
3 Down:
1. Odell Beckham, WR, New York
Speaking of Beckham for a player who has had 25 touchdowns in his first 28 NFL games it’s hard to say that his 3 game scoring drought is anything but disappointing. Despite being an Eagles fan I’m a huge fan of Beckham and his talent. He had 121 yards last week in his rematch with Josh Norman, but his team left with the loss. When you combine yet another sideline tantrum with a lack of scoring combined with losing a battle to a kicking net, it’s hard to say that Beckham is anything but down right now.
2. Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas
Dez has had some hard luck with catches that weren’t catches and injuries over the last few seasons. But can we be realistic that Dez Bryant isn’t a game changing elite NFL receiver right now. Look at what guys like A.J. Green and DeAndre Hopkins and Antonio Brown do on a weekly basis. Can we really say that Dez is in that category anymore? I don’t think so. From a statistical standpoint he’s not even the best receiver on his team right now. The truth hurts.
3. Tony Romo, QB, Dallas
Romo hasn’t even taken the field this regular season, and while I’ll admit that Dak Prescott hasn’t done enough to wrest the job away from Romo yet he’s on his way. Prescott hasn’t been flawless, but he’s been very good and is improving each and every week. He’s leading the Cowboys like a veteran and in all likelihood will be sitting at 3-1 after a victory against the 49ers this week. By the time Romo is ready to come back it very well may be too late for him to take the job back from his replacement. Romo is still a legitimate NFL quarterback when healthy, but that “healthy” designation hasn’t been used in conjunction with Romo very often anymore. When you combine his age, his health and his salary we may be looking at Romo’s last year with the Cowboys.
Well folks, that’s it for this week. Don’t forget to check out all the other great content here at the site. Our writers are second to none. I’ll see you next week with a review of week 4, thanks for reading.