Adrian Fedkiw
Even if the Philadelphia Eagles were to miraculously win their last five games, it’s still not guaranteed that they’d sniff the postseason. There’s a lot of teams they have to pass and some of the tiebreakers aren’t in their favor.
Left tackle Jason Peters said earlier this week that he will “demand” that the Eagles fight until the end.
We’ll see how much fight they have Sunday when they visit Cincinnati to clash with the struggling 3-7-1 Bengals.
EAGLES PASSING GAME VS. BENGALS PASS DEFENSE
PHI- 83.2 Passer Rating (23/32), 221 YPG (27/32)
CIN- 92.2 Passer Rating allowed (17/32), 246 YPG allowed (13/32)
Carson Wentz was 24-of-36 for 254 yards, but threw a costly interception on this overthrow to Ertz along the left seam.
Carson Wentz throws an interception which stops an #Eagles drive which was building momentum. https://t.co/uaPk2aeWhf
— Philly Influencer (@PHL_Influencer) November 29, 2016
Besides that pick, the rookie was fine and ran a lot more than his previous games. He took off four times for 33 yards and scored a touchdown on Philadelphia’s opening possession.
#Eagles tie it up as Carson Wentz does it himself with the dive at the goal line. 7-7. #PHIvsGB #FlyEaglesFly https://t.co/3APv9SOsNg
— Philly Influencer (@PHL_Influencer) November 29, 2016
Wentz’s hasn’t played his best football the last month or so. He continues to perceive pressure that isn’t there, he’s not setting his feet in the pocket, which is leading to those overthrows, and locks onto one receiver a lot of the time.
No, he doesn’t have a lot of weapons to work with, but that’s not an excuse for his mechanical flaws at the moment. These are the growing pains of having a rookie quarterback.
The storyline coming into Monday night was if Nelson Agholor would play and he wound up being inactive. But his replacements, Paul Turner and Bryce Treggs, combined for one catch and that was an 11-yard reception by Treggs. My hopes for the undrafted rookies weren’t as high as many others coming into this game. These guys weren’t picked in the NFL Draft for a reason. Grant it, Turner’s opportunities were limited, but I expected it considering he and Carson Wentz haven’t had a lot of practice time together. Treggs on the other hand is a one-trick pony, he runs fast and goes deep. Agholor’s status for Sunday is still up in the air, but I expect him to play.
Is Dorial Green-Beckham finally starting to turn the corner? He began to emerge late in garbage time during the latter stages of the fourth quarter against the Seattle Seahawks and caught four passes for 53 yards on the opening drive against the Green Bay Packers, but the Eagles didn’t go back to him much after that. We’ll see how effective Jordan Matthews will be coming off that ankle injury on Monday night.
We also didn’t see as much of the two-to-three tight end sets as recent weeks, which is another head-scratcher because the trio of Zach Ertz, Trey Burton and Brent Celek are the strength of the team offensively.
Adam Jones and Dre Kirkpatrick are a solid pair of cornerbacks for the Bengals, while safety George Iloka is fantastic in coverage and possesses great range and athleticism. Their other safety Shawn Williams is underrated.
EAGLES RUNNING GAME VS. BENGALS RUN DEFENSE
PHI- 4.3 YPC (13/32), 114.9 YPG (8/32)
CIN- 4.4 YPC allowed (26/32), 120.5 YPG allowed (28/32)
Out of the litany of disappointments coming out of Monday’s loss to Green Bay, the one I was most frustrated with was head coach Doug Pederson’s lack of commitment to the running game.
The Eagles ran for over 200 yards against the Atlanta Falcons two weeks ago and put up 4.35 yards per carry against the Seattle Seahawks, one of the best run defenses in the NFL, the week after that. Yes, the Eagles were shorthanded along the offensive line with Halapoulivaati Vaitai’s injury at right tackle and Brandon Brooks’ stint in the hospital put even more of a damper on things, but for Wendell Smallwood to only get nine carries is ridiculous.
Ryan Mathews remains day-to-day with a knee sprain and didn’t practice Wednesday.
Cincinnati’s struggles of stopping the run are surprising considering the litany of talent it has along the front seven. Defensive tackle Geno Atkins, defensive end Carlos Dunlap and linebacker Vontaze Burfict are high quality players.
Atkins has a great first step and unparalleled quickness, something we quite frankly haven’t seen until last year. He also plays with a lot of power and leverage, opposing linemen rarely get under his pads. As a run stuffer, Atkins plays with great instincts. He uses his lower body strength to his advantage. He always knows when to time his disengagement from a linemen and then go and make a tackle.
At 6’6 280 pounds, Dunlap is very athletic for a guy his size to go with great technique. He doesn’t do anything explosively, but does a bunch of things really well. Burfict possesses natural ball-hawking instincts in the run game, plays it very fluidly and cuts through the traffic. He’s strong, can take on blockers and shed them to get to the ball carrier. He can also play in space and close the run down.
If the Eagles are going to win this week, they have to get back to running the football and winning the time of possession battle.
BENGALS PASSING GAME VS. EAGLES PASS DEFENSE
PHI- 87.2 Passer Rating allowed (8/32), 237 YPG allowed (11/32)
CIN- 89.7 Passer Rating (19/32), 222 YPG (25/32)
The Eagles’ front seven didn’t pick up one sack against Aaron Rodgers on Monday and when they struggle getting after the quarterback, the secondary gets exposed. Rodgers threw for 313 yards and two touchdowns and Green Bay converted 10-of-14 attempts on third down.
It wasn’t pretty.
The Eagles posted 20 sacks in their first six games and just six over their past five.
Pederson had an explanation as to why in his press conference Monday.
“What we’re seeing in games is obviously teams know we have a good defensive line. We have a good pass rush. They are keeping tight ends and backs in. Some teams are using two tight ends in protection. Seven-man protection, six-man protection. They are chipping our defensive ends which secure your ‘A’ and ‘B’ gaps. And then your pass rush lanes become a little tighter. It’s just something that we keep working games, you keep working pick stunts, you keep working all the things that you do to try to free up these guys, whether it be linebackers and tackles, tackles and ends, ends and tackles, and just keep working at it. We do the same thing a lot with backs and tight ends, trying to add an extra element of protection, knowing that a team has a good defensive line. This is what we’re seeing. This is why good defensive lines in the NFL get this type of attention. I can remember the days when we were constantly going against the Giants with [former Giants DE Michael Strahan and those guys. We kept constantly keeping tight ends and backs and more protection elements in the game plan to nullify the pass rush. So we got to keep working. It’s tough. They know it. We just keep working on a daily basis,” he said.
The Bengals will be without their best offensive weapon in wide receiver A.J. Green, who suffered a hamstring injury against the Buffalo Bills in Week 11.
Andy Dalton, who has 12 touchdowns and six interceptions so far this season, completed 66.1 percent of his tosses with 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions and sported an AFC-high 106.2 passer rating prior to his season-ending injury last year.
#SuperFanNFL ¡Touchdown @Bengals! Andy Dalton conecta con Eifert. EN VIVO por TDcom https://t.co/2U8VNcvG3R https://t.co/4vvzMprBAM
— Televisa Deportes (@TD_Deportes) November 27, 2016
BENGALS RUNNING GAME VS. EAGLES RUN DEFENSE
PHI- 4.3 YPC allowed (22/32), 102.8 YPG allowed (17/32)
CIN- 4.1 YPC (19/32), 108.8 YPG (14/32)
In addition to losing Green in Week 11, running back Gio Bernard tore his ACL. Bernard is a shifty and elusive runner that excels in the passing game.
That means most of the workload is on Jeremy Hill, who has rushed for less than 80 yards in 9-of-11 games, including last Sunday when he posted just 21 yards on 12 carries.
Bernard and Hill complement each other well, with Hill working more between the tackles and Bernard outside of them, but the Bengals won’t have that luxury.
The Eagles’ run defense has been a lot better the last month, allowing just 288 yards total over their last four games.
Jenkins closes into the backfield on Freeman quickly and attacks, nice play. Doing a little bit of everything today. @AdrianFedkiw pic.twitter.com/o39iHYiK1J
— Philly Influencer (@PHL_Influencer) November 13, 2016
PREDICTION: Despite the Eagles’ road struggles, I feel like this one in Cincinnati is winnable. If Pederson gets back to running the football on a consistent bases against a defense that hasn’t been able to stop it all year and wins the time of possession battle, Philadelphia should be able to win this game. The losses of Green are Bernard are key for the Bengals too.