Chris Euksuzian
The PGA Tour moves back east after a long west coast swing this week. But this time, it’s a bit unusual for a WGC event; typically, this event is held in Mexico, but because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the WGC will be played in Florida at the Concession. This is a Jack Nicklaus course that is a 7,474-yard Par 72 with Bermudagrass greens. These greens will be similar to the Genesis Invitational based on the difficulty. The actual green texture will be completely different, but you will see tons of greens that will be slopping all over the place. This course will also have tons of water to avoid which will be the complete opposite of the Genesis. There will also be a lot of bunkers and big bunkers surrounding the greens, which will make big decisions for golfers if they decide to go for the green or decide to layup. This is a no-cut event, so keep that in mind with a field of 72 golfers!
This is a new course on the PGA Tour, so there isn’t much data for this event. But that’s okay! I would like to compare two courses designed by Nicklaus that I believe will help us analyze a course that simply doesn’t have any course history for these players. The Memorial Tournament seems to be the number one course that comes to mind for comparison; a Nicklaus course that is also a Par 72 and a very difficult course that has also held a star-studded field like this one before. Another Nicklaus course that seems similar to this is the RBC Heritage course. This is a Par 71 which plays a little smaller than the Concession course. I feel it is important to consider how golfers have played at these last events when deciding to go with a golfer.
I have two match-up plays this week I feel real strong about and that we can cash in on this week! So let’s get to it!
Ryan Palmer (-125) vs. Matthew Wolff
Ryan Palmer has been something that Matthew Wolff has not been all this season: consistent! Wolff has dropped out of events and simply hasn’t found his stride due to the “pandemic season” tiring him out. Personally, I just don’t feel he’s quite there yet with his golf striking ability. He has been shaky around the green, which will play a huge part in this course. Palmer, on the other hand, has a fourth-place finish and second-place finish this year. If you want to go with the data I have used for the Memorial and RBC heritage, Palmer finished second at the Memorial and finished eighth at the RBC. I do not mind laying the juice with Palmer against Wolff because he is simply the better golfer now and has a real shot of making around the top 10 at this event. I do not see Wolff doing this, so it seems the only way to go with this match-up is Palmer.
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Justin Rose (-155) vs. Matt Kuchar
Let’s just start off with this: Matt Kuchar has been terrible. No matter what course he has been at, he hasn’t done well. He has missed the the cut in two out of his last four events, including one at the Genesis. He could not take advantage of being a good putter and around the green player. The other two events for the season, he finished 42nd and 37th. Kuchar is a name, but a name that simply isn’t good right now and possibly reaching the end of his career as far as winning or even contending for events. Justin Rose has been a name you haven’t heard much of because he has been on the European Tour. I was lucky enough to watch him play on the Golf Channel during that time. While he only posted one great final score of -13 for a T2 at the Saudi International, he has shown strides of playing really well. Rose has also had good history in Florida, finishing with three top-fives at the Honda Classic. I believe he will step up at this WGC event having past success in Florida, along with being a solid SG ARG player with having good driving distance. This course could fit him very well and this match-up could be a rocking chair bet even laying -155 against Kuchar.
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Thank you for reading my favorite match-ups for the week for the WGC-Workday Championship! Check out my Off The Tee YouTube channel, as I break down every PGA tournament for the week with my best bets. I am also featured on Fox Sports The Gambler’s Daily Ticket with Sean Brace every Wednesday to break down the betting card for the top PGA tourney of the week.
Good luck with your plays!
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
You can follow Chris Euksuzian on Twitter (@ChrisEbomb) and (@OTTmatchups), and e-mail him at [email protected]. Subscribe to Off The Tee on YouTube here.
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