We got ourselves a title fight, folks.
This weekend’s card is stacked, featuring three high profile fights and a bunch of others. Let’s get to it.
First: Parlay the heavily favored Virna Jandriboa (-315) and John Dodson (+188) to bring the odds to +280.
Second: Jim Miller’s looked damn good in 3 of his last four fights, his only loss came at the hands of Scott Holtzman which still earned him a fight of the night bonus. Even though he’s the betting underdog, +105, I like him by KO, Submission or DQ at +215.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-136) vs. Junior dos Santos (+108)
Someone’s going to sleep, or this will be one of those fights where the two guys respect each other’s power too much and it’ll be boring. No in-between.
Rozenstruik was 10-0 before a 20-second knockout loss to Francis Ngannou back in May. He had four knockout victories in the UFC to boot.
JDS needs no introduction. He’s one of the best heavyweight fighters in the promotion’s history. It’s worth noting, however, that he’s been knocked out twice in his last two fights.
The knockout is the play here – you get slightly better odds on Rozenstruik by KO, TKO, or DQ at -110 if you think he can knockout the former champ.
If you think JDS gets back in the win column, by KO, TKO or DQ that runs at +333. I’m all over that.
Sean O’Malley (-286) vs. Marlon Vera (+225)
I like this match-up a lot.
“Sugar” Sean O’Malley won his way into the UFC by a knockout on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series back in 2017 and he managed to keep his unbeaten streak after entering the promotion. The 14th ranked bantamweight has back-to-back knockout wins over Eddie Wineland and Jose Alberto Quinonez.
Marlon Vera is no slouch either. He’s been in the UFC since 2014 and has 14 fights under his belt. He was on a five fight win streak (all by stoppage, mind you) before being derailed by Song Yadong back in May.
The only money in O’Malley is the prop bet – by decision is +150, by KO, TKO, Submission or DQ is +140. If you think the Sugar show can roll on this is where I’d lean.
Me? I think Vera will pull the upset. Give me his moneyline.
Stipe Miocic (-104) vs. Daniel Cormier (-115)
This is one of my favorite matchups of the year.
Earlier I said JDS was one of the best heavyweights of all time, and I meant it. Believe you me, these two are higher on the list.
Stipe, the defending champ, has defended the belt three times in the past before coughing it up to Cormier in 2018. He won it back a year later. Since making his UFC debut in 2011 he has nine knockout wins and proved he has the gas tank to go a full five rounds.
Cormier has been damn near perfect in his UFC career, dropping one fight to Jon Jones and one to Stipe. His other fight with Jones, originally a loss, was ruled a No Contest after Jones popped hot for steroids.
In the first fight, DC won by knockout. The second time around Stipe knocked out DC. What happens the third time?
The odds: The fight to go the distance sits at +165, the odds it ends early are at -225. Stipe by KO, TKO, Submission, or DQ is +190; DC by the same is +175. Stipe by decision is +450; DC by the same is +350.
This fight is too close to call for me – the moneylines speak for themselves. Nothing that happens in the octagon during this fight will shock me; both guys are incredible fighters and either can win. Unfortunately, only one guy can get his hand raised.*
If I absolutely had to pick I’d say Stipe rounds out the trilogy with a win – the question is how. The moneyline is the safest bet but I like him by knockout at +190.
*Unless it’s a tie, which is +6600 odds.