Adrian Fedkiw
Doug Pederson is Andy Reid.
Ezekiel Elliott is Ricky Williams.
It’s literally 1999 all over again!
If a group of fans trek to Chicago and boo whoever the Philadelphia Eagles pick at No. 8, then I’ll really start getting goosebumps.
Angelo, don’t even think about assembling a crew!
The peculiar case of Elliott. On one hand you have this crop-top wearing destructive force that eats defenses for breakfast, lunch and dinner. On the other you have a position which has been severely underutilized the last few years coupled with the fact that the Eagles have more important holes to fill.
So what do you do?
If Howie Roseman listens to the fans then the choice will unequivocally be Elliott. He’s shown that he can put a team on his back, bulldozing for 696 yards during Ohio State’s national title run in 2015. That included a 246-yard, four-touchdown performance against Oregon in the title game.
When you look at what the Eagles are going to do offensively under Pederson, they want to be a slow and conservative power attack which is going to churn a lot of clock and rely on their defense to win games. The Kansas City Chiefs ran the second fewest plays per game (59.3) last season when Pederson was the offensive coordinator under Reid and had the sixth highest run/pass ratio at 46 percent.
Elliott has the prototypical size and athleticism for a workhorse running back to go with the balance, vision and patience to attack in between the tackles. He doesn’t hesitate and powerfully finishes his runs with natural forward lean to pick up every inch he can. When the Eagles go on one of those methodical 12, 13, 14-play drives against a fatigued defense, who’s going to stop Elliott near the goal line?
It’s these reasons which have made me think long and hard about selecting him, more so than a month ago.
However, you know what’s coming. And oh yeah, it’s coming.
Here’s the but.
BUT … Elliott wouldn’t be my first choice.
At the owners meetings Monday in Boca Raton, Roseman stated that the running back position isn’t devalued.
“We studied that. There’s this narrative that you can get running backs in the fifth, sixth, seventh round of the draft and free agency. But when you look back at the last 10 years, guys who were really in the top 10 in rushing, those guys are high picks,” he said.
He’s not wrong.
After reading his quote I went and conducted my own study. Now, I didn’t look back at the last decade because the game has become ridiculously more pass-happy than even the last 10 years, so I jotted down notes of the last five. Here’s why, last year just seven running backs surpassed 1,000 yards. You read that right, SEVEN! Hell, the Buffalo Bills were the only team in league to run the ball more than they threw it. Just one of those seven, Adrian Peterson, carried the ball more than 300 times. He was also the lone 1,000-yard runner to reach the postseason. When you compare that to a decade ago, 23 ball carriers reached the 1,000-yard plateau and 10 toted the rock 300-plus times. Fifteen running backs ran for over 1,000 yards five years ago, but just one needed 300 carries to get there.
On to the findings.
Of the 30 different running backs to finish in the top 10 of the single-season rushing yards list, 12 were first-round picks, seven were second rounders, three went in the third, two in the fourth, one in the fifth, two in the sixth, one in the seventh and two were undrafted free agents.
When you dig a little deeper, however, just four of the 12 first-round selections were top 10 choices, while three went in the teens and five went pick No. 20 or higher.
Don’t worry, there’s a point to this.
Next year’s running back class might potentially be LOADED if some of the underclassmen standouts elect to forego their senior seasons. It starts with Leonard Fournette, who I believe is going to be a better pro than Elliott. Nick Chubb, Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Samaje Perine and Wayne Gallman might also be part of the class. Cook and Freeman are the only two upcoming 2016 seniors on the list.
With the Eagles re-tooling instead of rebuilding, I think it’s likely that they won’t pick in the top 10 next year, but if they’re in the teens or 20’s, one of those backs will be available. Hell, they might still be there in the second round too. Over the last five drafts, only six running backs were taken in the first round and just two were top 10 choices. Three of those picks went 28th or higher.
Roseman may think that the running back position hasn’t been devalued, but the facts prove otherwise.
As great as it appears Elliott will be, taking a back in the top 10 isn’t a slam dunk.
Ki-Jana Carter, Lawrence Phillips, Tim Biakabutuka, Curtis Enis, Fred Taylor, Edgerrin James, Ricky Williams, Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, Ladainian Tomlinson, Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Cadillac Williams, Reggie Bush, Peterson, Darren McFadden, C.J. Spiller, Trent Richardson and Todd Gurley are the 19 running backs who have been top-10 picks over the last 20 years. I counted seven who lived up to their draft status, not a good ratio.
According to Pro Football Focus, running backs have had a 49 percent bust rate over the last 25 years. That’s worse than any other position.
Just another quick nugget before I get to my next point. Of arguably the four greatest running backs in team history, only Steve Van Buren was a first-rounder, but that was all the way back in 1944 when he went fifth. Does that even count? LeSean McCoy was drafted in the second round, Brian Westbrook in the third and Wilbert Montgomery didn’t go until the sixth round. The Eagles haven’t selected a running back in the first round since Keith Byars in 1986.
Out of the realistic options who might be there at No. 8, Elliott would be third on my board. I’d take cornerback Vernon Hargreaves and tackle Ronnie Stanley ahead of him.
I miss Troy Vincent and Bobby Taylor, Lito Sheppard and Sheldon Brown. A pairing of Hargreaves and Eric Rowe have the potential to be just as great as those duos. Nolan Carroll is only on a one-year deal and Leodis McKelvin is a fringe starter in the NFL. Hargreaves, meanwhile, can be slowly groomed and ready to go next year. Cornerback is one of the toughest transitions from the college game to the pros. In college the corner plays the man, but in the pros they play the air, the space between the quarterback and wide receiver. There’s a learning curve, although Marcus Peters was an exception last year. Sheppard and Brown were drafted in the first and second round, respectively, but neither started a game until their sophomore seasons.
Stanley and Johnson would be the perfect set of tackles to build the offensive line around when Jason Peters decides to hang up the cleats. Stanley is fantastic in pass protection, something that isn’t Johnson’s strength as he’s better equipped blocking in the run game. Taking Stanley would allow Johnson to stay at right tackle.
https://youtu.be/WJcv6oPAwpo
Elliott is going to be a great player in the NFL for a long time, but more cornerbacks and tackles get taken in the top 10 than running backs. The Eagles aren’t going to be in the top 10 every year, so why not get your cornerback and tackle this year and wait until the stacked 2017 class comes around to get your running back.
I’m not going to lie, though, the crop top is awesome.
It puts Kiko Alonso’s belly shirt to shame!
Will the recent rumors of Elliott’s drug habits affect his draft stock? We’ll just have to wait and see.