Adrian Fedkiw
It’s a decision that has the potential of turning Howie Roseman into a goat for decades to come.
Or the greatest of all time if he hits the lottery.
Are all these shenanigans just a smokescreen?
The Eagles, of course, have been linked to Carson Wentz and are rumored to be in the running of possibly trading up for the Tennessee Titans’ No. 1 pick so they can select him. Head coach Doug Pederson, owner Jeffrey Lurie, and the vice president of football operations Roseman have all expressed the need for the Eagles to pick a quarterback in next month’s NFL Draft.
Just how high are they willing to go for one?
Is an elaborate plan in play? Does Howie have something up his sleeve? The four teams in the running of possibly trading up to No. 1 are the Cleveland Browns (No. 2), San Francisco 49ers (No. 7), Eagles (No. 8), and St. Louis Rams (No. 15). It’s not a coincidence to find the Eagles and Chip’s new boys in San Francisco as potential suitors. The chess match between Howie and Chip Kelly continues. Who’s bluffing? Or are both legitimately interested in getting the top pick?
Nobody has shot up the draft boards in recent years the way North Dakota State’s Wentz has. And the Wentz Wagon picked up more steam Friday after respected analysts such as NFL Network’s Mike Mayock and NFL.com’s Gil Brandt said that Wentz had one of the best Pro Days they’d ever seen.
This is Mayock we’re talking about here! He compared his athleticism to Andrew Luck and Cam Newton and his toughness and competitiveness to Philip Rivers. Mayock said he had the second-best arm in the draft and that he “checks off all the boxes.”
That raised my eyebrows.
Quite the praise for a quarterback with just 23 starts and 612 pass attempts at the FCS level.
From watching his tape, Senior Bowl week, Combine and Pro Day the comparisons aren’t completely far-fetched. Yes, he’s doing this all against inferior competition, which is why there will be a steep learning curve dealing with the enhanced speed of the NFL game. He’s going to possibly need a year on the bench. History has shown, however, that FCS quarterbacks have been able to make a seamless transition to the pros.
Five non-FBS quarterbacks have been taken in the first round since 1978: Doug Williams (17th, 1978), Phil Simms (7th, 1979), Ken O’Brien (24th, 1983), Steve McNair (3rd, 1995) and Joe Flacco (18th, 2008). Three of those guys won a Super Bowl and another was a yard short of potentially winning one. O’Brien was the only one to not play in a Super Bowl, but he wasn’t an FCS quarterback.
So every FCS quarterback who has been drafted in the first round over the last 38 years has at least made it to the big game.
But those are just numbers, what about Wentz’s tape?
His transition to the speed of the game will take time, but in my opinion, he has the best feet in the class. He operated in a pro-style offense for the Bison and has smooth, quiet feet when taking snaps from under center. He’s athletic, has a compact release, great zip on tighter-window passes, slides in the pocket well, and makes good throws and decisions while under duress.
Wentz had 642 yards rushing in 2014 with the Bison. He’s going to be a weapon around the goal line using his frame and athletic ability. That’s how he compares to Newton and Luck. Wentz will never touch Newton from an athletic standpoint, but he can be savvy around the goal line like Luck. It’s another tool in the arsenal. He also does a good job of improvising when the play breaks down.
Of course, there are downsides. There’s the injury history and him missing eight games this past season due to a broken wrist. From a decision standpoint, Wentz can get into stretches where he lives dangerously trying to thread passes into tight windows.
I’m very high on Wentz and think he’s the best of a very weak quarterback class. If he were in last year’s class he would’ve been the third signal-caller taken, but that doesn’t mean he’s not a top 10 talent. In my opinion, I think he’ll be a better pro than Matthew Stafford and Sam Bradford, who were No. 1 overall picks in 2009 and 2010, respectively. But can he perform up to the levels that Newton and Luck have, who were the top selections of the 2011 and 2012 drafts?
Pederson has used the word “smart” a lot when asked about the traits he looks for in a quarterback. He wants one that wins, has the work ethic, intangibles and toughness. These are all characteristics Mayock said Wentz had. These are also traits that Alex Smith in Kansas City had. Smith is also sneaky athletic and ran for 498 yards in 2015, the fourth-highest among quarterbacks. Pederson can take advantage of Wentz’s wheels just as he did Smith’s.
He fits what Pederson likes to do on offense.
Philadelphia, however, will do its due diligence. Pederson did say during the NFC Coaches Breakfast last Wednesday that while he doesn’t like to attend Pro Days, he will meet with the top six or so quarterback prospects. He worked out California’s Jared Goff Monday and Stanford’s Kevin Hogan Tuesday.
If the Eagles believe that the talent gap between Wentz and Goff isn’t high, there’s the possibility that he falls to No. 6. And if Philly wants its future quarterback in this class, it might try to leapfrog San Francisco from the eighth spot. According to the NFL Draft trade chart, the Eagles would have to send the Baltimore Ravens one of their two third-round picks this year.
If the Eagles wind up staying put at No. 8, the other route of drafting a quarterback would be in the middle rounds. They were the first team to meet with Penn State’s Christian Hackenberg after his Pro Day and met with another middle-round candidate, Hogan, Tuesday. This would be like the Seattle Seahawks’ model when they drafted Russell Wilson in the third round of the 2012 NFL Draft and inked Matt Flynn to a huge contract that same offseason. Wilson beat him out in Training Camp and went on to win a Super Bowl in 2013. Good luck finding that needle in the haystack.
Following the Byron Maxwell, Kiko Alonso, and DeMarco Murray trades, the Eagles had to fill holes at cornerback, safety, outside linebacker, running back, wide receiver, guard, and a tackle for the future.
They’ve been able to plug some of those holes by signing younger free agents Rodney McLeod and Brandon Brooks to backloaded deals. Philadelphia locked up the 25-year-old McLeod to a five-year, $35 million deal, but he’s just a $2.6 million cap hit for 2016. The 26-year-old Brooks inked a five-year, $40 million pact and is a cap hit of $3.2 million. The same backloaded concept was also used with the extensions handed out to Malcolm Jenkins, Lane Johnson, Vinny Curry, Sam Bradford, and Zach Ertz.
Roseman might look at those two free-agent acquisitions almost like a pair of high-priced draft picks. If the Eagles do decide to gamble and spend a bundle to move up to No. 1, McLeod and Brooks will still be in their primes when Wentz is ready to start in a year or two. And by backloading the deals, the Eagles may not have money to spend down the line, but Howie will have his first and second-round picks back by then.
There’s a big difference between being at No. 13 and moving up to eight. Roseman has previously stated that there are 10 players he’s looking at drafting and if Tennessee sees the same thing coupled with quarterback Marcus Mariota already in tow, it might want more draft compensation as added ammunition to fix other needs. There was the Eagles’ rumored double trade to soar from No. 20 to the second pick last year with Bradford heading to Cleveland at 13. The Eagles weren’t able to move up last year at 20, but being at No. 8 is a lot more appetizing for the teams near the top.
The HUGE RISK here is hitting on the draft picks. Will Roseman be able to shake off his prior draft track record? From 2010-2014 when Roseman was the general manager, there’s only 16 of 48 picks still on Philadelphia’s roster. Sure, Kelly parted ways with some of those selections and with Andy Reid still in town from 2010-12 who knows who was calling the shots, but Roseman has had some major flops.
Roseman would have to pluck a gem in the later rounds at guard and tackle, maybe find another capable cornerback and wide receiver, get a linebacker and add an edge rusher to the fray. Does he have to ability to find a diamond in the rough like Antonio Brown in the late rounds?
His draft history alone is a reason why I’d stay away from trading all the way up.
Roseman did spend at the quarterback position, handing out $34 million guaranteed to Bradford and Chase Daniel. Bradford’s contract is for two years and if he shows he can remain consistent for an entire season while Wentz learns from the pine, he could become a trade chip for next year. Even though he’ll have a high cap number, a potential suitor for Bradford can restructure his deal. Who knows, maybe a team decides to toss a second-rounder, maybe a third, at you for Bradford and you receive one of the picks back in that potential swap with Tennessee.
According to the NFL Draft trade chart, the No. 1 pick is worth 3,000 points, while the Eagles’ eighth selection is 1,400. I also don’t think they’ll be picking in the top 10 again next year. Let’s say they finish in the middle of the pack next season, the 16th pick is 1,000 points. Obviously Philadelphia doesn’t have a second-rounder in this draft, so to get to about 3,000 it would take either its second-round pick next year or both of its thirds (205 and 195 points) this year to reach that number.
That’s two firsts and a second or two firsts and two thirds, but you’d think with three other teams in play it might take more. So let’s say it’s a pair of firsts and seconds.
If Roseman and Pederson are 100 percent certain that Wentz can be like a Newton or Luck, they might take the risk and pull the trigger on a blockbuster trade.
They just better be right.
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