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Adrian’s Notebook: Grading Doug Pederson’s Week 10 Play Calling against the Broncos

The Kansas City Chiefs were content with Peyton Manning breaking one NFL record during their Week 10 showdown against the Denver Broncos, just not the more important one.

The one that Manning really wanted.

Kansas City took advantage of arguably the worst performance of Manning’s career, battering the future Hall-of-Famer and handing the Broncos a 29-13 loss. Manning was 5-of-20 for 35 yards with four interceptions and a zero passer rating before being benched for Brock Osweiler late in the third quarter. In seven first half drives, Manning tossed a trio of interceptions and led the Broncos to a quartet of three-and-outs.

With a modest four-yard completion in the left flat to Ronnie Hillman on Denver’s second possession of the game, Manning climbed ahead of Brett Favre on the all-time passing yards list. Manning came into the game just three yards shy of breaking the previous mark of 71,838. His chance at becoming the all-time wins leader (186) had to wait another week. 

Andy Reid has always taken advantage of the bye week during the year, although he had dropped two of his last three post bye-week games heading in. Reid still had a career mark of 13-2 coming in. Kansas City capitalized on Denver’s mistakes and raced out to a 19-0 lead. It was another easy second half of play-calling for Doug Pederson, who was in the midst of calling his third second half in a row.

Prior to his introductory press conference in January there were reports saying that the Chiefs’ head coach allowed Pederson to call plays, but nobody knew how often. During the presser, Pederson explained how much latitude he was granted.

His answer may have raised a few eyebrows.

 “I was able to call plays since the Pittsburgh game on,” he said. “Coach Reid and I had a great understanding and great feel for the game. He allowed me to call the second half of every football game from that game on.”

That Steelers game was the start of Kansas City’s stunning turnaround in 2015. The Chiefs were in the midst of a five-game losing streak and 1-5 heading into that Week 7 contest, but their 23-13 win was the beginning of their 10-game winning streak to close the regular season. Kansas City’s victory over the Broncos was its third win in a row, snapped a seven-game losing streak in the series and vaulted it to 4-5. Denver was also without outside linebacker Demarcus Ware and cornerback Aqib Talib, it was just not the same team that hoisted the Lombardi Trophy a few months later in Santa Clara. Let’s check out Pederson’s play-calling as we go possession by possession.

How the grading works:

To put it simply a (+) is a win for the offense, a (-) is a win for the defense and a (/) is a tie. For example, if a team has a 1st and 10 and the offense picks up five-or-more yards it’s a win for them. It’s a victory for the defense if they hold the offense to three yards or fewer. A four-yard gain is a tie.

An offensive touchdown results into (+++), but a turnover forced by the defense gets (- – -). A field goal is (++) and a safety (- -).

(++)- Offense gains 15-29 yards past the original line of scrimmage. If the offense commits a holding penalty and they pick up 15 yards on a 1st and 20, the offense gets just one (+) instead of two.

(+++)- 30-49 yards

(++++)- 50-74 yards

(+++++)- 75-or-more yards

Other notes: A 75-yard TD gets (++++++++) and any pick-six/fumble recovery for a score results into (- – – – – – – -). Another example, if the defense forces a turnover and returns it for 50 yards, they will receive (- – – – – – -). If the defense forces a three-and-out they get a bonus of (- -).

KC 1st drive of second half: 15:00 left in the third quarter, ball at Denver 49 leading 19-0

1+10 (49)- 11 personnel– Chris Harris was step-for-step with Jeremy Maclin along the left sideline on a wheel route (-)

2+10 (49)- 11 personnel– West left guard one yard (-)

3+9 (48)- 11 personnel– Travis Kelce dropped a crossing route (-)

5-0 Den on drive

Brandon McManus attempted an onside kick to start the second half, which the Chiefs recovered. Kansas City went three-and-out on its opening touch, but I liked going for the kill with the deep shot on the first play. Smith had one-on-one coverage with Maclin lined up as the single wide receiver on the left side. Chris Harris, however, rode Maclin’s hip beautifully and Smith overthrew his intended target.

It would’ve been interesting to see if Kelce would’ve picked up the first down had he caught the ball. He beat Kayvon Webster easily off the line of scrimmage with a quick inside move. Safety T.J. Ward reacted well and took a good angle to Kelce. Would Kelce have been able to turn the corner and get to the chains?

 

KC 2nd drive of second half: 13:17 left in the third quarter, ball at Denver 41 leading 19-0

1+10 (41)- 11 personnel- Von Miller pressured Smith and forced him to get rid of the ball sooner than he would’ve liked (-)

2+10 (41)- 12 personnel- West left guard two yards (-)

3+9 (40)- 20 personnel- Miller pressured Smith again, but holding penalty called on Webster (+)

1+10 (35)- 21 personnel- West off left tackle two yards (-)

2+8 (33)- 21 personnel- West up the middle one yard (-)

3+7 (32)- 10 personnel- Miller pressured Smith (-)

4+7 (32)- 50-yard field goal (++)

5-3 Den on drive, 10-3 Den in second half

Denver had just gone three-and-out for the fifth time in eight touches and Kansas City was in Broncos territory for the fourth time in nine possessions at the 41 following a 15-yard, fair-catch interference penalty.

Like the initial first-half drive, Pederson again tried to get the ball down the field on the opening play. He called a play-action pass with Maclin appearing to be the primary target on a deep crossing route. Miller’s pressure, however, got to Smith prior to the play fully materializing. Tight end Demetrius Harris failed to get a chip block on him, West ran a route out of the backfield instead of staying in to block and right tackle Jah Reid was unable to steer Miller past the pocket.

 

 

A predictable pass play on 3rd-and-9 followed two plays later and Miller wreaked havoc again. He beat Reid immediately off the snap before barreling through fullback Anthony Sherman to get some heat on Smith. Pederson changed the personnel from first down, this time keeping two backs in to block instead of them running routes and have the tight end chip. Miller split Reid and Sherman to get to Smith anyway.

 

 

Pederson has used more run-heavy personnel so far in two drives than he had in his first two games calling plays, which is understandable due to how stingy Denver’s run defense is. On the 3rd-and-7, Pederson did not help Reid out with Miller, as Miller quickly beat Reid off the line of scrimmage. Perhaps Pederson didn’t think Miller would get to Smith in time because he had taken a shorter drop than his other throws.

 

 

So Pederson didn’t do anything to help the Chiefs with Miller on the march, but the Webster penalty helped KC get a first down and three more points on the board after Santos booted through a 50-yarder, his fifth field goal of the game to make it 22-0.

 

KC 3rd possession of second half: 9:34 left in the third quarter, ball at own 49 leading 22-0

1+10 (49)- 13 personnel– West left guard no gain (-)

2+10 (49)- 11 personnel- Smith had his pass tipped and it fell incomplete (-)

3+10 (49)- Smith 17-yard scramble off the left side (++)

1+10 (34)-  12 personnel- West no gain right guard (-)

2+10 (34)- 20 personnel- Ball thrown away after the Broncos sniffed out the screen (-)

3+10 (34)- 11 personnel-  Miller sacks Smith for a loss of seven yards (-)

5-2 Den on drive, 15-5 Den in second half

The Chiefs regained possession at their own 49-yard line following Manning’s fourth interception of the game, a severely underthrown floater along the right sideline that was picked by Ron Parker. KC was still struggling to gain traction on the ground. On first down, Pederson had three tight ends line up on the line of scrimmage to try and help generate some push. They did that, but West decided to cut left instead and ran into the waiting arms of Malik Jackson. Pederson made the proper call, West didn’t make the proper cut.

 

 

Pederson lined West up on the right side of the line of scrimmage on 3rd-and-10 to help chip Miller before he went out for his pattern, and Reid did a much better job of sliding his feet and getting his hands on Miller. Smith then picked up the first down with his legs.

 

 

In another attempt to try and get some yardage on the ground, Pederson lined two tight ends to the left side and motioned De’Anthony Thomas from right to left on a jet sweep fake, but West was again corralled for no gain. Miller lined up on the right side instead of the left on third down, got matched up one-on-one against the tight end D. Harris and blew right past him for the sack, which took the Chiefs out of field-goal range. The left tackle Eric Fisher helped left guard Jarrod Pughsley double-team Jackson, West took the blitzing safety and Harris was left alone on an island with Miller.

 

 

KC 4th possession of second half: 5:07 left in the third quarter, ball at own 37 leading 22-0

1+10 (36)- 10 personnel– West left flat eight yards (+)

2+2 (44)- 10 personnel– Shaquille Barrett bats the pass down at the line of scrimmage (/)

3+2 (44)- 21 personnel– Smith rolled right and incomplete to Maclin (-)

3-1 Den on drive, 18-6 Den in second half

Just like his teacher, Pederson threw the ball on 3rd-and-2 rather than run it, although you can’t blame him here considering how futile the running game had been. Smith rolled to his right, but C. Harris pressed the intended receiver Maclin at the line of scrimmage and blanketed him on an out-breaking route. Denver did an outstanding job of taking away all three levels on the play, with Brandon Marshall all over West in the right flat and Bradley Roby with coverage on Thomas.

 

 

Smith’s eight-yard completion on first down snapped a string of eight straight passes without one. It was a call from Pederson to get his quarterback back into a rhythm.

 

KC 5th possession of second half: 12:03 left in the fourth quarter, ball at own 19 leading 22-0

1+10 (19)- 22 personnel– West left guard one yard (-)

2+9 (20)- 10 personnel– West 80-yard touchdown on pass in right flat (++++++++)

8-1 KC on drive, 19-14 Den in second half 

Pederson tried to get the running game going again and had just one receiver on the first-down play, which featured an off-set eye formation and a pair of tight ends blocking on the right side. Vance Walker shot through and stopped West for a minimal gain. Nobody accounted for West out of the backfield a play later, however, and all it took was an open-field shake at midfield against Ward before West coasted for the 80-yard score.

 

 

KC 6th Possession of second half: 5:24 left in the fourth quarter, ball at Den 37 leading 29-7

1+10 (37)- 12 personnel- West off left tackle three yards

2+7 (34)- 22 personnel- West right guard four yards

3+3 (30)- West inside handoff one yard

4+2 (29)- Santos’ 47-yard field goal is no good

Up 22 with just over five minutes left, the Chiefs attempted to run out the clock after Denver failed to recover an onside kick. I stopped the scoring here because the outcome has been decided.

 

KC 7th Possession of second half: 1:44 left in the fourth quarter, ball at Den 37 leading 29-13

1+10 (44)- 12 personnel- West right guard eight yards

2+2 (36)- 12 personnel- West up the middle for four yards

1+10 (32)- Kneel

2+11 (33)- Kneel

Denver again fails to recover an onside kick and West runs for a first down to set up a pair of kneel-downs and a third straight win for Kansas City.

 

Overall Thoughts:

Andy Reid put his pupil in a very favorable position for a second consecutive game.

Kansas City roared out to a 24-3 halftime lead against the helpless Lions in Week 8 and Denver’s miscues in the opening half helped the Chiefs storm out to a 19-0 advantage at the break in this one. The Broncos never seriously threatened over the final 30 minutes. Even against Pittsburgh, KC held a 9-3 cushion heading into the locker room.

While some may wonder why Reid would call the first half and not the second, it’s not surprising at all. He’s known as being one of the best at scripting a game’s first 15 plays. Kansas City scored 169 points in the opening 30 minutes and 162 in the final 30 over its last 12 games — including the postseason. So that’s 14.1 points per half for Reid and 13.5 for Pederson, not that much of a difference. The Chiefs held a lead at the break in nine of those contests and six were by 10-or-more points, so Pederson was usually put in positive circumstances, just like he was again here.

Pederson used a lot more formations and personnel packages in this game compared to the two others I recapped. The then-Chiefs offensive coordinator experimented with them to try and get the running game going against a stingy Broncos defense. He also attempted to limit the damage caused by Miller.

Unfortunately, not too much he did worked.

The running game had still in the beginning stages of moving on from Jamaal Charles, who tore his ACL a few weeks prior, and Denver is the best defense in football. But West carried the ball 11 times for just 13 yards in the second half when the Chiefs needed to pick up some first downs and run some clock. He ran for 56 yards on 13 totes in the first half. I was waiting for a reverse, an end-around or a jet sweep to try and jump-start the running game from Pederson, but none of those were called. I did like the one call of putting three tight ends on the right side of the formation, but Pederson never came back to that after West cut to the left instead of following his blockers.

As for Miller, Pederson didn’t have the talent on the offensive line to neutralize his disruption. Jah Reid, a fringe starting right tackle, was going up against arguably the best edge rusher in the league. Pederson attempted to use different looks and personnel to chip him, but no straight double teams.

Miller was getting the Smith unabated for much of the second half.

There was something Pederson did against the Steelers that I liked to counter their pressure and it surprised me that he didn’t go back to it in this game to help out Jah Reid. Kansas City was in shotgun with a pair of double stacks tight to the formation. Jason Avant and Kelce, who lined up deep in the stacks, stayed in to block. On this particular play, Avant and Eric Fisher double-teamed James Harrison and he got nowhere near Smith.

The Chiefs benefited from a deteriorating Manning because their offense may not have been good enough to win this game going against him in his prime. They had to settle for five field goals and West scored an 80-yard touchdown on basically a pass in the flat. The score should’ve been a lot more lopsided than it was. The Broncos gave this game to the Chiefs, KC didn’t win it.

I gave Pederson a C-. He had his worst performance of the three games, but the experience of going up against an elite defense was more important than anything Pederson had done as an offensive coordinator to date. According to my scoring, Denver’s defense outscored Kansas City’s offense 19-14. When you take away the sort-of-fluky 80-yard touchdown reception by West, the Chiefs basically had three points and totaled just 46 yards in the second half.

Yes, the Chiefs had a 19-point lead when Pederson took over played not to lose, which was fine. It worked! He just didn’t do a good enough job of adjusting, which wouldn’t have been fine had Kansas City been in a more competitive game.

 

STEELERS WEEK 7 GAME GRADE: B

LIONS WEEK 8 GAME GRADE: N/A

WEEK 9: BYE

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