Tony Cutillo
Are you having withdrawal from fantasy football? Are you still having nightmares from that horrendous first-round bust? If you are like many others, you are still replaying drafting guys like Eddie Lacy in the first round over and over again. However, now it is time to redeem yourself and dust off the books for another year of hopeful success.
People ask me all the time, What can I look for in the preseason that will help me for my fantasy draft? My direct response is to forget the stats and just concentrate on the system. The only thing that matters to a fantasy owner in the preseason should be offensive line play and the style of offense teams will be running. Take a glimpse of how many slants and go routes they try. See how the O-line run blocks and sets up screens. This is the inner science of fantasy scouting in the preseason, not the inflated numbers generated against some guys who will be driving a bus in a few weeks. Now onto the real season.
Fantasy football in the year 2015 seemed to reinvent the wheel, so to speak, when it comes to lineup decisions. The often used “Stone Cold Lock” for players inserted into weekly lineups became a thing of the past and proper matchup dissection started to revolutionize the game. However, sitting Antonio Brown is still frowned upon in any contest, but leaving guys like Randall Cobb with less favorable matchups on the bench were commonplace. One thing that’s for sure is the rise of the WR position, especially in PPR leagues. Just take a glance at the following statistics:
- 2015: RB1s (RB1-RB12) averaged 262 touches for 1,336 total yards and 9.3 touchdowns (229.6 PPR fantasy points)
- 2010-14: RB1s averaged 310 touches for 1,620 total yards and 10.6 TDs (270.6)
- 2015: RB2s (RB13-RB24) averaged 217.2 touches for 1,084 total yards and 5.1 touchdowns (176.2)
- 2010-14: RB2s averaged 241.6 touches for 1,139 total yards and 7.1 touchdowns (189.4)
Stats (PPR) courtesy of FFToday.com
The “Zero Running Back Theory” continues to rise as the running back position has been decimated by age, injuries, job security and RBBC. Most NFL teams are now employing a 2 back system leaving the Priest Holmes days far behind. If you haven’t realized by now, the WR position has become the most viable commodity in fantasy football drafts with the stats from last year as proof. As you can see below, the top WR last year far outweighed the RB position without any competition.
- WR’s……A. Brown: 385, J. Jones 376, B. Marshall 343, D. Hopkins 329, O. Beckham 319, A. Robinson 304
- RB’s……D. Freeman 317, A. Peterson 263
Stats (PPR) courtesy of Fantasysportsaddiction.com
As you can see the top point totals weren’t even close and the difference in levels is far greater from the RB position. Obviously, the injuries to Jamaal Charles and Le’Veon Bell, as well as the down year from Eddie Lacy have to be taken into consideration. However, the decline has become far too evident on a yearly basis leaving players to draft the safer option. I think the RB position will rebound in some sense this year, but the days of eight running backs selected in the first round are a distant memory.
As we look into 2016 we will see much of the same with even more wide receivers coming into the spotlight. The passing game in the NFL is becoming the focal point of all teams and pass first offenses are starting to fuel fantasy stats quicker than a Domino’s delivery man. The belief from years ago was a rookie rarely contributes in their first year, but things are beginning to change. From Odell Beckham Jr. and Mike Evans in 2014 to Todd Gurley and Amari Cooper last season, rookies have found immediate stardom as fantasy assets with regularity in recent years.
All this says is there will be more impactful players to draft and less straws to grasp in the later rounds. Now, more than ever, the middle rounds of a fantasy football draft prove to have a level of high importance.
In the coming weeks I will dissect my Top 10 lists, sleeper candidates, breakout rookies and potential busts. I will also be sending out my weekly “Stars and Stiffs report”, “What Just Happened” recap and the all-exclusive Fantasy Triple Threat picks. What is Fantasy Triple Threat you ask? It is something I started last year at fantasysportsaddction.com and am bringing to you at Pi for 2016. On a weekly basis I will pick a QB, RB, and WR for the week to tally points based on a PPR scoring system. We will then see who has the best combo at the end of the week. If we get enough people to join in, we will then develop a spreadsheet to track results. By the way, there is one catch. You can only use that player one time during those 16 weeks. Now it gets interesting doesn’t it!
As always, you can stop by my Facebook page (Fantasy Sports Addiction) or tweet me (@TCutillo23) for questions or some nice fantasy debates. I can also be heard weekly via the internet stream live at WENG RADIO every Monday at 4:00 P.M. ET for a weekend sports wrap. But most importantly, you can catch me here at Pi!