Tony Cutillo
Welcome to the second edition of The Fantasy Factor. The Fantasy Factor was unveiled last week and continues to recap all the intricate details of the week’s Thursday night game. Historically, the Thursday night game has not been very fan friendly towards the fantasy world, but it still offers us a decent gauge of what to look for in future weeks. However, after witnessing many individual offensive explosions in the first two games, it looks like this year may actually prove to be a fantasy positive instead of a negative. In this segment, I hope to enlighten you on some interesting facts, as well as some hard thought out analogies to give you a smile going into the weekend. Let’s dive in, shall we?
As I was looking at the Thursday night schedule coming into this year, the Week 2 matchup between the Jets and the Bills certainly wasn’t one that made my eyes pop. I was already planning my flip stations just in case the unenthusiastic game I expected became a reality. These two teams aren’t always known as scoreboard toppers, but last night they looked to change that theory. In a game where both teams were looking for win number one on the season, they gave us a lot to get excited for with a 68-point shootout.
These two teams offered up a variety of questions coming into the 2016 season. For the Jets, it was who would be their starting quarterback in Week 1. For the Bills, it was trying to foresee Tyrod Taylor as being the franchise QB they so desperately need. After handing him a six-year contract worth $92 million in the offseason, I am sure they didn’t want to be left with any doubt. This game looked to take these theories and help the fantasy world decide who would be relevant enough to contribute to a winning season.
The following highlights are what I think were the most important fantasy factors to take away from last night’s game:
I. Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to be an underrated fantasy QB.
After a free agent tour that turned out to show what the Jets already knew, Ryan Fitzpatrick wasn’t shown much love by any other NFL team and wound up right back behind center in New York. He signed on very late, but since his handle on the offense was already perfected, the odds were in is favor to settle into the driver’s seat early in his conquest for a winning season.
Fitzpatrick completed 24-of-34 passes for 374 yards and a touchdown in a performance that showed he was starting to become the king of the back shoulder pass. He took advantage of a zone coverage scheme that seen the Buffalo DB’s give the receivers too much space at times. There wasn’t always a huge window to fit the ball, but when you have two guys by the name of Decker and Marshall to throw to, how can you not trust your instincts. Fitz will never be a Top 5 stud, but if you have a solid offensive team built around him he can easily lead your team to a winning season.
II. Lesean McCoy isn’t a reliable RB1 in fantasy anymore.
McCoy tallied 90 total yards on 19 touches but failed to find the end zone. Some may say better days are coming for McCoy, but I beg to differ. I feel the Buffalo offense is still a work in progress with Taylor being the main rusher for the future. Shady has shown throughout his career to be great in the open field with an uncanny ability to make guys miss. However, with a lackluster offensive line that doesn’t offer many lanes to run, Shady will struggle to produce big games. His role in the passing game seems to be diminishing and we tend to see him riding the bike on the sidelines more than making plays on the field. Just my opinion.
III. Matt Forte is still a RB1.
Coming into this year all the talk surrounding Matt Forte had him pegged as a washed up running back looking to squeeze every last ounce of offense out of his body before it was too late. The experts were ramming Bilal Powell down every owner’s throat and said this would be a split backfield at best. Well, let’s look at the numbers after two weeks and just see how these so-called experts faired. Powell has been out-touched by a margin of 59-8 and Forte is coming fresh off a 30 carry performance. Do I really need to say anymore? Matt Forte will continue to be the rock to lean on in New York. Start him as a RB1 with confidence.
IV. Eric Decker is the main man in NY this year.
Every year there are always a few players that drop off the top charts and ones who move up. This year, is just so happens to be two players on the same squad. Last year, Brandon Marshall continued to be explosive and finished as a top 5 fantasy WR. However, with the emergence of Decker in this offense, Marshall’s role could deteriorate just enough for him to drop out of the top 10.
Decker has a knack for finding the soft spot in opposing coverages and has sure hands that rarely fail him. Last night he caught his 15th TD in 17 games. That is a pretty impressive stat and one that shows Fitz is always looking his way when he needs a score. As Marshall still shows off the inevitable drop in a big situation and comes up with more nagging injuries every year, Decker will keep pushing to be the main man to own in NY.
V. Sammy Watkins is a serious concern for all fantasy owners.
After quietly having a procedure for a foot ailment in the offseason, Sammy Watkins has shown he is still having issues on the field. Watkins stated in early June that he didn’t know when he would be healed following surgery to repair stress fractures in his left foot. This was something we all watched play out on training camp and still came away concerned heading into the year.
After his first game of the season, he definitely showed he was still in recovery mode. He was asked about his performance in Week 1 and admitted that his foot was a big reason why it wasn’t up to par with his level of play. In the first two weeks of play he has offered up 6 receptions for 63 yards. These are not the numbers you expect from a guy drafted anywhere from rounds 2-4. There is always time for things to change, but watching a player who relies on his speed run like Will Ferrell in Old School doesn’t leave us much hope. Proceed with caution!
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We knew there would be some decent scoring plays last night because both defenses are overrated, but no one could have predicted a 68-point shootout. The Thursday night game was always a sore spot for many fantasy owners, but 2016 looks to be a different animal. Either way it will keep us watching and allow me the opportunity to give you the weekly Fantasy Factor!
As always, you can stop by my Facebook page (Fantasy Sports Addiction) or tweet me (@TCutillo23) for questions or some nice fantasy debates. I can also be heard weekly via the internet stream live at WENG RADIO every Monday at 4:00 P.M. ET for a weekend sports wrap. But most importantly, you can catch me here at Pi!
For fantasy purposes, all my articles are predicated upon a PPR-based system.