Ray Hagan
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Beat of the East here at PhillyInfluencer.com. I managed to go 2-1 with our NFC East predictions this week, 2-1 against the spread again. That brings me to 5-1 overall, 4-2 against the spread. Not so bad. Just starting to find the footing. If only I could start figuring out these Redskins.
REWIND
The Redskins won their third straight. I had referenced in the preview column that the Ravens had put up offensive clunkers in odd-numbered weeks, but I didn’t think the trend would continue. It did. The Ravens hung only 10 points against one of the most porous defenses in the league through the first four weeks and found themselves on the wrong end of the scoreboard for the second straight week. The Ravens fired offensive coordinator Marc Trestman and former Eagles’ OC Marty Mornhinweg will take over. The Redskins move to 3-2 with the victory and hold the third spot in the NFC East after beginning the season 0-2.
If you read the preview column last Friday you know that I didn’t understand why Vegas was so high on Cincinnati going into Dallas. The line was totally frugase. The Bengals showed on the field that Vegas missed the mark there and Dallas was the better team. Do I think the dirty, stinking Cowboys (from herein referred to as “Cowboys”) are quite as good as they showed on Sunday? No, I don’t. But that’s a good football team. They’ve got some holes, but there are very few NFL teams that don’t. At the end of the day, Dallas flat-out outclassed a team that’s supposed to be a contender to win the AFC North. Dak Prescott continues to shine and the offense continues to protect him. Their line is fabulous as we all know, but the play-calling has allowed Prescott, after a shaky debut, to complete north of 70% of his passes in each of the last four games, including 75% on Sunday. Dallas also has the luxury of leaning on the league’s leading rusher Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott keeps getting better every week and that’s a frightening thought. This offense is scoring in bunches and they’re doing it without arguably their biggest offensive weapon in the form of Dez Bryant. I actually think Elliott has been the biggest offensive weapon through the first five games. The Cowboys wrestled the division lead away on the back of their fourth straight victory.
The Giants finally did the main thing they’ve been unable to do all season; they won the turnover battle, but still couldn’t walk away with the victory. Their anemic rushing attack left Eli Manning in an awkward position with the Packers’ defense just teeing off on him all night long. They got to Manning for four sacks and also forced a fumble. At the end of the day, the Giants had chances to win. Aaron Rodgers was far from flawless, but Eli couldn’t get it done. Manning was the biggest goat in the game for me. He managed to complete just over 50% of his passes, but the bulk of what he managed to actually complete were easier throws to backs and tight ends. He completed 84.6% of his passes to those groups while completing only 36.8% on throws to his wide receivers. For the sake of comparison, the other quarterbacks in the division completed 66.6% (Kirk Cousins/Carson Wentz) and 91.6% (Prescott) of their passes to WRs. Given that Manning might have the most talented receiving corps of the bunch, that’s particularly glaring. If the Giants are going to dig out of losing three straight, it starts with the quarterback.
FAST FORWARD
The 4-1 Cowboys now face the same Packers team that edged out the Giants when they travel to Lambeau. The Packers are often seen as a litmus test of sorts for NFC teams as they’ve been a contender for what feels like eternity. Oddly, I feel this is more a test for the Pack than it is for the Cowboys. Dallas is beating opponents by an average of 7.6 points per game, more than twice Green Bay’s average margin of victory at 3.75 points per game. Where it will be interesting to see, and I believe Dallas could have a challenge, is in the running game. It’s the classic case of irresistible force (Elliott) against the immovable object (Packers run defense).
The Redskins, winners of three straight, take on our beloved Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday. After a gut-wrenching loss to the Lions, the Eagles desperately need a rebound game as a loss would send them to third place in the division. After a 3-0 start, that simply can’t happen. The Redskins are coming in on a hot streak though, and will not make this an easy one for the birds. The Redskins will also have a motivated DeSean Jackson coming in. Jackson has struggled with only 4 catches for 40 yards in his last two games. But Jackson has 2 100+ yard games in his 3 games against his former team. With the fact that this secondary is likely the weakest part of the Eagles’ defense, it’s going to be up to the front 4 to get pressure on Cousins and not give Jackson time to get behind the defense or it could be a long day for Philly.
The Giants are in need of some serious breathing room, and they won’t get it this week. They draw a Baltimore team that has lost two straight and has scored well in even weeks. The G-Men lose a bit of the luxury of “having tape” on the Ravens with the switch over from Trestman to Mornhinweg. It’s hard to get a feel on how much or how little Mornhinweg will try to put his stamp on the offense. The good news for the Giants is that they get the Ravens potentially could be without Steve Smith who left Sunday’s game against Washington with an injured ankle and did not return.
LONG BOMB
Just how good is Ezekiel Elliott? That’s a question that’s been on my mind since his first 100-yard game. He was my number one rated fantasy back coming into the season, and he’s surely delivered on that front in the last three games. After rushing for 134 combined yards in his first two games, Elliott hasn’t rushed for less than that in any single game since. He’s also seen his yards per carry jump every single week he’s been in the league. From 2.6 in Week 1 to 4.0 in Week 2 to 4.7 in Week 3 to 6.0 in Week 4 and finally a ridiculous 8.9 on Sunday.
He’s arguably the best player at his position in the NFL after only five games in the league. There are not many NFC East players you can make that argument for. You could make an argument for Fletcher Cox, you could make an argument for Jordan Reed (perhaps), and those two are all that really spring to mind. Because of just how stunningly good he’s been, I decided to compare Zeke’s first five games with those of the other running backs drafted first at the position in each of the last 10 (11 including Elliott) years. Below are their per-game averages (and rank among these peers) for attempts, yards, yards per carry, and touchdowns for the first five games of their respective careers. I’ve then averaged their rank across each category to see who stands as the best.
| Player | Attempts | Rank | Yards | Rank | YPC | Rank | TD | Rank | Avg Rank |
| Adrian Peterson | 19.2 | 2 | 121.40 | 1 | 6.32 | 1 | 0.8 | 2 | 1.50 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 21.8 | 1 | 109.20 | 3 | 5.01 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2.25 |
| Todd Gurley | 18.8 | 3 | 115.00 | 2 | 6.12 | 2 | 0.6 | 4 | 2.75 |
| Darren McFadden | 11.8 | 7 | 60.40 | 5 | 5.12 | 3 | 0.2 | 7 | 5.50 |
| Trent Richardson | 16.2 | 4 | 53.80 | 6 | 3.32 | 10 | 0.8 | 2 | 5.50 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 16.2 | 4 | 67.40 | 4 | 4.16 | 8 | 0.2 | 7 | 5.75 |
| Mark Ingram | 12.4 | 6 | 43.20 | 7 | 3.48 | 9 | 0.4 | 5 | 6.75 |
| Gio Bernard | 9.0 | 9 | 41.80 | 8 | 4.64 | 6 | 0.4 | 7 | 7.50 |
| Bishop Sankey | 6.4 | 10 | 30.00 | 10 | 4.69 | 5 | 0.2 | 7 | 8.00 |
| Reggie Bush | 10.8 | 8 | 34.00 | 9 | 3.15 | 11 | 0.0 | 10 | 9.50 |
| CJ Spiller | 3.8 | 11 | 16.00 | 11 | 4.21 | 7 | 0.0 | 10 | 9.75 |
The first thing that stands out about this list is that of these top drafted running backs there are a lot of middling backs in this group, which goes to show what a tough job NFL scouting is. Just looking at the bottom of the list, Trent Richardson, Darren McFadden and Reggie Bush were all viewed as “can’t miss prospects” and all carved out at best a serviceable career and Richardson didn’t even reach that.
The second thing that stood out was that Todd Gurley, Elliott and Adrian Peterson all stand head and shoulders in terms of production above the other eight backs. Their average rank is less than three; everyone south of them has an average rank of over five. Peterson, no surprise is the top back of those drafted first at the position over the last 11 drafts. Elliott, however, is the second best of the bunch, coming in slightly ahead of Gurley. Elliott and Peterson are the only two backs to be ranked first in a category. That’s pretty rare air. That doesn’t tell the whole story, because as we covered, some of those backs weren’t that good. Because of that I wanted to see how his first five games stacked up against those of the rushing champions from the prior 10 years.
| Player | Carries | Rank | Yards | Rank | YPC | Rank | TD | Rank | AVG Rank |
| DeMarco Murray 2014 | 26.00 | 1 | 134.00 | 1 | 5.15 | 4 | 1.00 | 2 | 2.00 |
| Ezekiel Elliott 2016 | 21.80 | 3 | 109.20 | 3 | 5.01 | 5 | 1.00 | 2 | 3.25 |
| Arian Foster 2010 | 19.40 | 8 | 112.80 | 2 | 5.81 | 2 | 0.80 | 4 | 4.00 |
| LeSean McCoy 2013 | 19.60 | 6 | 102.80 | 4 | 5.24 | 3 | 0.60 | 5 | 4.50 |
| Ladanian Tomlinson 2006 | 22.00 | 2 | 81.40 | 10 | 3.70 | 10 | 1.40 | 1 | 5.75 |
| Adrian Peterson 2008 | 20.80 | 4 | 90.40 | 7 | 4.35 | 8 | 0.60 | 5 | 6.00 |
| Chris Johnson 2009 | 15.60 | 11 | 93.60 | 6 | 6.00 | 1 | 0.40 | 7 | 6.25 |
| Adrian Peterson 2015 | 20.20 | 5 | 86.40 | 8 | 4.28 | 9 | 0.60 | 5 | 6.75 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew 2011 | 19.20 | 9 | 95.20 | 5 | 4.96 | 6 | 0.40 | 7 | 6.75 |
| Adrian Peterson 2012 | 19.20 | 9 | 84.00 | 9 | 4.38 | 7 | 0.40 | 7 | 8.00 |
| Ladanian Tomlinson 2007 | 19.60 | 6 | 65.80 | 11 | 3.36 | 11 | 0.40 | 7 | 8.75 |
Elliott is having the second best start to a campaign in the last 11 years. Only DeMarco Murray in 2014 had a better all-around start to his league-leading season. Amazingly, Peterson’s 2012 where he finished with the second most yards in league history ranks tied for last in terms of an all-around start. That’s stunning. Peterson started off slowly and had a monster middle of the season. Imagine if this is Zeke’s “bad” stretch…that’s a frightening thought. That’s unlikely, but not impossible.
Looking at this chart it’s also shocking just how amazing Chris Johnson was in 2009, averaging just a hair under 94 yards per game through his first five while getting less than 16 carries per game. In terms of statistics Elliott’s best comp on the list might be Shady’s 2013 season. While Elliott is slightly higher across the board, the numbers are similar enough that you can get a pretty firm grasp of how good Elliott has been. We all remember that amazing season when Shady tore up the league in Chip Kelly’s first season…ah, memories. Elliott is currently on pace for 1,747 yards, if he starts making jumps like he did from his first 2 games to his next three, the sky is the limit. Knowing that Elliott is as good as he is among his recent contemporaries, I wanted to see how he stacked up against some of the all-time greats in their first five games.
| Player | Attempts | Rank | Yards | Rank | YPC | Rank | TD | Rank | Avg Rank |
| Eric Dickerson | 25.4 | 1 | 129.00 | 1 | 5.08 | 5 | 1.8 | 1 | 2.00 |
| Adrian Peterson | 19.2 | 5 | 121.40 | 2 | 6.32 | 1 | 0.8 | 6 | 3.50 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 21.8 | 3 | 109.20 | 3 | 5.01 | 6 | 1.0 | 4 | 4.00 |
| LaDanian Tomlinson | 25.4 | 1 | 97.20 | 5 | 3.83 | 8 | 1.4 | 2 | 4.00 |
| Jim Brown | 16.8 | 6 | 99.20 | 4 | 5.90 | 3 | 1.0 | 4 | 4.25 |
| Marshall Faulk | 20.8 | 4 | 91.80 | 7 | 4.41 | 7 | 1.2 | 3 | 5.25 |
| Edgerrin James | 24.6 | 2 | 93.60 | 6 | 3.80 | 9 | 0.4 | 10 | 6.75 |
| Barry Sanders | 13.4 | 9 | 70.80 | 8 | 5.28 | 4 | 0.6 | 8 | 7.25 |
| Tony Dorsett | 10.8 | 12 | 67.40 | 9 | 6.24 | 2 | 0.8 | 6 | 7.25 |
| Curtis Martin | 16.2 | 8 | 51.40 | 10 | 3.17 | 11 | 0.4 | 10 | 9.75 |
| Emmitt Smith | 12.0 | 11 | 45.00 | 11 | 3.75 | 10 | 0.6 | 8 | 10.00 |
| Walter Payton | 13.4 | 9 | 40.00 | 12 | 2.99 | 12 | 0.0 | 12 | 11.25 |
Like the first list, there are some crazy things that stand out. What jumped out to me is that the two ALL-TIME NFL rushing leaders come in at the bottom of the list, with Walter Payton ranking dead last in three statistics (yards, yards per carry, and touchdowns) and Emmitt Smith coming out of the gates very slowly as well. The second thing that stands out is Eric Dickerson was insanely good. To be at the top of this list, with some of the greatest runners in history and of the last two decades is insane. He ranked first in 3 of the 4 statistical categories. He was an absolute workhorse who churned out yards and got in the end zone at a crazy rate.
The third thing that stands out is that Ezekiel Elliott in an era of pass happy teams is legitimately comparable to some of the all-time greats through their first games and stands atop many of them. He ranks behind only Dickerson and Peterson here. He is tied with LaDanian Tomlinson who was perhaps the biggest weapon in football for a stretch in his career. His numbers dwarf the Cowboys’ best at the position in the form of Emmitt Smith and Tony Dorsett. Zeke is proving to be a workhorse at over 20 carries per game, he’s one of only three of these all-time greats to average over 100 yards per game through their first five games, and his TD rate is fantastic as well. If you average out the first five games of Adrian Peterson and Marshall Faulk you get 20 carries, 106.6 yards and one touchdown per game. That’s basically Ezekiel Elliott. Not only is Zeke modern day good, this kid is historically good. I don’t want to get too far ahead of myself after only 5 games, but if he can stay healthy, I’m afraid the Cowboys have a good one for a long, long time and that makes me sad.
BEAST OF THE BEAT
I’m going to close this week’s column with some recognition for a non-Eagles player or coach who shined in the division this week. This week’s winner (for the third consecutive week) is the ridiculous rookie running back that we highlighted above, Mr. Ezekiel Elliott. Last week, Elliott helped pick the Cowboys up off the mat after falling behind early and finished with his second straight game over 130 yards on the ground. This week he made sure they never trailed. He helped them jump out early and both he and the team never looked back. He went over 130 on the ground for the third straight week, and tallied his best day in the air with 3 catches for 37 yards to go over 170 scrimmage yards for the first time. Congrats on taking home the hardware for a third straight week. If he wins this again next week, we’re just naming it the Ezekiel Elliott Beast of the Beat award and giving someone else a chance.
We’ll be back later in the week with a preview of this week’s NFC East matchups, thanks for reading and be sure to check out all of the great content here at PhillyInfluencer.com and follow me on Twitter (@faux_philly).