Nick Piccone
Hello ladies and gentlemen, welcome to another round of Beat of the NFC East. Let’s review where we are with predictions: 20-1-1 with winners and losers and 17-15 against the spread after a 1-0 straight up and a 1-0 against the spread last week. So let’s review what happened in last week’s Wild Card round.
REWIND
The Giants were absolutely let down by their receiving corps, particularly Odell Beckham, Jr. Beckham struggled in a big way in Green Bay. I don’t care about his boat trip, that’s overblown. What I care about is the fact that his drop rate has increased every year he’s been in the league, from 1.5% to 3.2% to 3.6% this year. Beckham is actually one of my favorite players to watch, but I think he’s let superstardom go to his head a bit and has also struggled to keep his emotions in check. Both of those things have likely led to the diminished focus that has seen his drop rate balloon. I think Beckham’s extremely talented, but I also think while he might be the best spectacular catch artist in the league, he’s letting too many mundane balls hit the ground. If I were Beckham, I’d be paying much more attention to two-hand catches, and a little less to the one-handers. Give the Packers credit, after being stymied by the Giants defense for almost two full quarters, they kicked it into gear and scored 24 unanswered points to cruise to a 38-13 victory. I thought life had been breathed into the Giants after a failed Green Bay fourth down attempt led to a New York touchdown almost immediately. Instead, Green Bay rallied. Speaking of that fourth down call, that’s one of the worst I’ve seen in a long time. Ty Montgomery had struggled all game and Christine Michael was running well, though, admittedly, he’d been stopped on third and short, and with much more passion than Montgomery. I’d have given the ball to the bigger, more productive, more fired up back. In the end, Green Bay advanced for a meeting in Dallas this weekend.
Green Bay at Dallas (-4.5)
Dallas comes off of its playoff bye week to meet a Green Bay team that just dismantled the same Giants team that knocked off Dallas twice during the regular season. While Dallas had a chance to rest their guys, Green Bay lost Jordy Nelson. However, they definitely bolstered their confidence in a convincing win over New York without Nelson most of the game as they head into “The House That Jerry Built.” I love Ezekiel Elliott, I think he’s probably the best back in football now, and that includes David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell. What I don’t love is that thanks to last week’s bye and Jason Garrett’s decision to rest him in Week 17, Elliott will not have played a meaningful snap in three weeks when he takes the field on Sunday. Green Bay, on the other hand, has been playing what has amounted to win-or-go-home games for the last seven weeks. While that can take a toll mentally, it can also give a team confidence when they run off win after win after win after win. I think that’s what’s happening for Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams all had tremendous games, respectively. There are legitimate threats all over the field for Green Bay even with Nelson out. Can Dallas cope with that?
How Dallas can win: First off, the three week layoff has to have little negative or positive effect on Elliott. He’s the single biggest difference maker in this game in my mind. Rodgers can throw the Packers on his back, but Elliott has the job of facing a verytough run defense. Green Bay surrendered the eighth fewest yards on the league per game against the run. The last time the Cowboys faced the Packers, Elliott ran for over 150 yards in a laugher. That’s something that Dallas is going to need to win this game. This one will not be a runaway victory. Green Bay has a struggling pass defense, and Dak Prescott has looked anything but shaky as a rookie. But Dallas also needs to make sure that playoff jitters don’t have an effect on their young quarterback. If Prescott can use Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams effectively, it opens things up for Elliott to run wild. And if Elliott can run wild, then it opens things up for Bryant and Williams as well as Cole Beasley and Jason Witten. The defense has to be stout against a Green Bay team that has been clicking on all cylinders.
How Green Bay can win: The Packers have to just keep playing as well as they have been. This is going to be about how well Rodgers plays. Right now he’s playing like the Rodgers that many people thought was gone after the first few games this year. Instead, he’s shown that he’s still among the elite quarterbacks in the league, if he’s not the top guy. The rumors of his demise were greatly exaggerated. Montgomery and Michael are going to have to figure out a way to pick up some yardage on the ground against the stingiest run defense in the league. But at the end of the day the real key is going to be the right arm of arguably the best quarterback in the game right now, and a guy who is making his case to maybe be the best quarterback in Packers history. He’s thrown for over 300 yards and four touchdowns in each of his last three games. As Randall Cobb told Peter King of The MMQB, “Hey, Aaron is definitely on fire right now. He’s on fire!” Yes, he is Mr. Cobb. Yes, he is. And I don’t think Dallas has the horses to keep up with that, much less to put that fire out.
Final score: Green Bay 31, Dallas 27.
If betting were legal: Take Green Bay plus the points.
Well folks, that’s it for this week. Don’t forget to check out all the other great content here at the site. Our writers are tremendous and tackle some really strong content. I’ll see you next week with a review of all the playoff action in the NFC East. If Dallas stays alive, and I don’t think they will, I’ll be back next week with an NFC Championship preview.
If they lose, I’ll have your first-ever Yearly Awards next week.
Want to discuss the column or football in general? Find me on Twitter (@faux_philly). Thanks for reading and have a great weekend of great football!