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Your In-Depth Eagles vs. 49ers Week 8 Preview

Adrian Fedkiw|

Another week and another potential trap that the Philadelphia Eagles have to avoid.

The Eagles, who are heavy 12 1/2-point home favorites against the San Francisco 49ers, have actually dropped four of their last six games when favored by double-digits or more.

Let’s not make it 5-of-7.

 

EAGLES PASSING GAME VS. 49ERS PASS DEFENSE
PHI- 104.0 PASSER RATING (4/32), 250 YPG (9/32)
SF- 98.5 PASSER RATING ALLOWED (26/32), 259 YPG ALLOWED (25/32)

It’s difficult for a second-year quarterback to reach 30 touchdowns during their sophomore campaign, let alone 40, but Carson Wentz will be on pace for that prestigious number if he tosses 3-or-more scores on Sunday. Wentz has thrown 11 touchdowns over his last three games and currently leads the NFL with 17.

Wentz finished with a surgeon-like 17-of-25 efficiency for 268 yards against the Redskins on Monday night with one interception, which essentially worked out as a 54-yard punt. He also added eight rushes for 63 yards on the ground, with five of them moving the chains. It was how that production was achieved, which reminded me of an MVP quarterback.

The Eagles started flat, tallying just a field goal over their first four possessions and trailing 10-3 past the midway point of the second quarter.

That’s when Wentz flipped the switch.

He first uncorked a beautiful 64-yard bomb for a score to Mack Hollins to suddenly tie the score, and then flipped another dime on the Eagles’ next drive, this one right into the lap of Zach Ertz for a 46-yard gain. He found Ertz to complete the drive and suddenly the Birds led 17-10 at the break. They proceeded to register touchdowns on four of five series, with Wentz capping the quartet of scoring drives with TD tosses.

That’s what MVPs do!

This 3rd-and-8 escape in the fourth quarter wasn’t human.

The next step for this team and Wentz is to see how they handle the catastrophic injuries to Jason Peters and Jordan Hicks.

Here’s what Eagles head coach Doug Pederson had to say regarding the next man-up mentality Tuesday.

“I think one of the things that I’ve talked about, and hopefully you guys have seen it with the team and talking to the players, is it’s definitely the next-man-up [mentality]. And they rally around the guys that are hurt, number one, [and] support them.

“But at the same time, the bigger picture is: we still have a lot of football left. And we still have a game this Sunday and the season’s not over.

“And they continue to practice hard and play hard. And they rally around a guy like Big V [T Halapoulivaati Vaitai] now who, listen, he’s not a rookie. He’s not that spring chicken who is playing for the first time.

“He played significant time last year. He’s played this year already. So a lot of confidence in all the guys.

“Great group of leaders on this team and they’ll be ready to go.”

Pederson also addressed if Big V would play left tackle or have Lane Johnson switch over and Vaitai man the right side.

“Those are things myself and Stout [Offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland] and [Offensive coordinator] Frank [Reich] we’ll get together later today [and] tomorrow morning and make that determination.

“[T] Lane [Johnson] is playing extremely well on the right side and Big V has been a swing tackle. We’ll take a lot of that into consideration this week before we step out on the field.”

Big V filled in admirably once Peters exited Monday night’s game against the Washington Redskins and played well following a slow start against the Carolina Panthers. He’s an average tackle in the NFL, so I believe there’s some talent there, but is he going to be able to combat with the league’s top pass rushers come playoff time? That’s the ultimate question. Vaitai will be going against Solomon Thomas on Sunday.

The 49ers’ secondary is the worst Philadelphia has seen so far this season and I believe Wentz and receivers will have their way. We’re still waiting for Alshon Jeffery to have his breakout game, could this finally be the week?

 

EAGLES RUNNING GAME VS. 49ERS RUN DEFENSE
PHI- 4.3 YPC (9/32), 131.7 YPG (4/32)
SF- 3.9 YPC ALLOWED (12/32), 134.6 YPG ALLOWED (30/32)

While I can see Big V holding his own in pass protection, where the Eagles will miss Peters is in run blocking. Peters’ ability to combo block and sprint to the second level and locate defenders will be missed. Philadelphia’s run game may also become more predictable because they’ll most likely elect to run the football along the right side of the line behind Brandon Brooks and Lane Johnson. When Big V filled in for Johnson at right tackle last year when he missed 10 games, the Eagles predominantly ran the football to the left and away from Vaitai.

The 49ers are allowing 134.6 rushing yards per game, the fourth most in the NFL, but have surrendered just 3.9 yards per carry. So while they’re giving up a lot of yardage, the number is inflated because San Francisco is playing behind a lot of the time. Prior to Thursday night’s game between Baltimore and Miami, San Francisco yielded the most rushing attempts (240) in the NFL. The Eagles, meanwhile, have faced only 123 rushing attempts, the fewest in the NFL.

If the weather does turn out lousy and the heavy rain comes, expect the Eagles to run the football a ton. The Dallas Cowboys had a ton of success toting the rock against the 49ers on Sunday, racking up 265 yards on 43 carries, with Ezekiel Elliott totaling 147 yards on 26 rushes and two scores. The 49ers’ Cover 3 defense is built to put eight men in the box and stop the run, but that didn’t happen against the Cowboys. I think losing Arik Armstead hurt because Dallas likes to use outsize zone and stretch runs along the edges of the defense. The 49ers also released the run-stuffing NaVarro Bowman.

So while statistically San Francisco’s run defense might not look too bad, recent departures have opened things up and I think the Eagles should be able to run the ball well Sunday afternoon.

 

49ERS PASSING GAME VS. EAGLES PASS DEFENSE
PHI- 89.1 PASSER RATING ALLOWED (18/32), 273 YPG ALLOWED (29/32)
SF- 74.1 PASSER RATING (30/32), 221 YPG (17/32)

C.J. Beathard was sacked five times against Dallas in his first career start and might need a lot more help getting up this Sunday when going up against the Eagles’ defensive line. I think the 49ers’ tackles Joe Staley and Trent Brown are solid, but there are some major flaws along the interior of the 49ers’ offensive line. The trio of Laken Tomlinson, Daniel Kilgore and Brandon Fusco will be no match for the duo of Fletcher Cox and Timmy Jernigan. Cox has been getting consistent penetration when healthy this season and even when going against elite guards like Carolina’s Trai Turner, so I don’t see how he’s going to be stopped Sunday. While I consider Brown a solid tackle, I still believe Brandon Graham can have his way against him. Beathard, who does have an ability of extending plays, will be scrambling for most of the afternoon.

Beathard was thrust into action midway through the second quarter when the 49ers played the Washington Redskins in Week 6. From the tape I’ve watched on him, his accuracy wavers and his feet in the pocket are inconsistent, attempting a lot of his passes off of his back foot. His arm strength is average, but does do a good job using his eyes to manipulate safeties. Beathard tends to hold onto the ball too long as well, which is why he takes off a lot. Some San Francisco fans believe he might be the answer at quarterback, I don’t see it.

There aren’t many weapons at Beathard’s disposal either. Pierre Garcon is San Francisco’s best receiver, but Marquise Goodwin, Aldrick Robinson and fifth-round rookie Trent Taylor certainly aren’t scaring opposing secondaries.

 

49ERS RUNNING GAME VS. EAGLES RUN DEFENSE
PHI- 3.8 YPC ALLOWED (11/32), 67.0 YPG ALLOWED (1/32)
SF- 4.3 YPC (16/32), 96.0 YPG (23/32)

The 49ers’ biggest offensive threat is Carlos Hyde and he is who the Eagles are going to need to worry about limiting on Sunday. If the Eagles build an early lead and take Hyde out of the game early, that means the third-round rookie Beathard is going to have to beat you and that’s not happening. Hyde has 428 rushing yards and four touchdowns so far on the season.

The Eagles haven’t allowed more than 81 yards in a game to opposing running backs all season.

I referenced earlier about the lack of receiving threats for San Francisco along the outside, but Hyde and back-up Matt Breida are used a lot in the passing game to mask that deficiency. Hyde is second on the team with 27 receptions, behind only Garcon.

 

PREDICTION – If the heavy rain does come, I do believe this game will be a little closer than if it’s sunny with minimal wind, but it’s going to be a win for the Eagles regardless. I can see this going similarly to the Redskins game with the Eagles come out a little flat, but once they flip the switch they’ll blow the 49ers out of the water.

Eagles 34-17

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