Tim O'Keefe
Blog Record: 29-25
March Record 2-3
What a day! I made my debut on Fox Sports The Gambler’s Daily Ticket with Sean Brace, and now we move to a full slate of NBA games beginning the second half of the season. Our Sixers (well, some of them) will be taking on the Bulls tonight to try and hold onto the number one seed in the East from a surging Nets team, and I couldn’t be more excited to see what this team does in this second half. March Madness is also here and conference tournaments are in full swing!
What a time to be alive as a sports fan after the year we’ve had. Now, let’s make it even better by adding some winners for your card tonight. You might have heard some of these on The Gambler earlier, but in case you missed it or if you just want a little extra detail on the picks, we have it right here for you.
Let’s get to it, here’s your Thursday Three:
Knicks at Bucks (-10.5) – 8 P.M. ET
The last two seasons for the Bucks haven’t lived up to overall expectations, and I don’t think that’s a secret. Giannis has back-to-back MVPs and the team has been the one seed in the East both of those seasons, but they are yet to reach the NBA Finals. They currently sit in the third seed in the East at 22-14.
On the other side, the Knicks are not the Knicks that we’ve come to know and laugh at. They are currently above .500 at 19-18 and it seems like they have figured out how to be at least an average NBA team, which is a huge improvement from years past. They have a good chance to make the playoffs for the first time, in a long time.
Now that we’ve talked about their seasons, let’s talk about tonight.
It’s a large point spread, but I like Milwaukee. I know we just spoke about how they haven’t had playoff success, but what they are good at is taking care of business in the regular season.
They are 11-4 ATS this season as a double digit favorite. Now that’s shooting almost 75%, which is impressive enough already and would be a reason to go on the play, but there’s more! When they are at home as double digit favorites, the Bucks are 8-1 ATS, an 89% success rate.
Say what you want about Milwaukee, but they take care of business against inferior competition.
Lay the 10.5 and watch the Bucks take care of business.
…
Suns (-4.5) at Blazers – 10 P.M. ET
Now if you listened earlier, you know Phoenix’s success rate at the books this season can’t continue at this rate. In the first half of the season, they are 24-11 ATS which is a 69% success rate. The highest rate on record in the last 5 years was the Boston Celtics in 2017-18 at 62.5%.
That being said, I don’t think that turn happens tonight. This Suns team beat the Blazers 132-100 earlier this season and I just think they match up very well with this team. Chris Paul is still a very good defensive guard, and I think that helps limit Damian Lillard which is the key to everything they do on offense.
Devin Booker is questionable, but comments by the Suns’ general manager make it seem as though he is more likely to play than not. If that happens, the spread will only increase. The Suns are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 and I like that to continue tonight.
Lay the 4.5 points with the Suns.
…
Rockets (+4.5) at Kings – 10 P.M. ET
Let’s talk about some teams that are, to put it nicely, pretty much straight garbage. In their last 26 games combined (13 each), these teams are a combined 3-23 ATS. That’s really tough to do, I mean really tough to do. That being said, somebody has to come out on top at the books in this game, and I’ll tell you why I think it’s the Rockets.
Primarily, my reasoning is simple … Victor Oladipo is back. No he’s not a Top 10 player, but he is definitely what I would call an impact player. He is also most likely getting traded in the next few weeks, and these next few games are his audition to be sent to a contender.
I expect the Rockets to keep this game close, and with two teams struggling this much, I’ll take the one getting the points.
Ride the Rockets +4.5.
…
Parlay Play:
Ok, here we go … overs galore!
All four of these plays are overs: Rockets/Suns 232.5, Timberwolves/Pelicans 237.5, Hawks/Raptors 225, Pistons/Hornets 224.5
Pays over 12-1 if it hits!
Let’s get some winners and thanks for reading, and now listening!
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
You can follow Tim O’Keefe on Twitter (@TOKeefe1992) and e-mail him at [email protected].
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