Ray Hagan
Welcome to another round of Beat of the East. I’m going to dig into the all important Week 6 matchups for the rest of the division. Last week, I went 2-1 on winners (5-1 overall) and 2-1 against the spread (4-2 overall). If I could just figure out the damn Redskins, I’d be set.
Let’s get to this week!
Dallas at Green Bay (-4.5)
While as an Eagles fan I have more interest in the Philadelphia-Washington game, from a purely objective standpoint this is the more interesting matchup. These Green Bay Packers have been viewed as a bit of a conference litmus test over the last few years. If Dallas can march into Lambeau and come away with a win, it will say a lot about their potential as a contender in the NFC. Dez Bryant has returned to practice, and if he plays, an already dangerous Dallas team becomes even more dangerous. Things will get interesting when Ezekiel Elliott and his 109.2 yards per game run into the Packer defense, which is allowing only 42.8 yards per game on the ground. That’s a juicy matchup. As much as the Packers provide that litmus test for the Cowboys, their run defense will show us just how good Zeke is. If he continues his dominance and has another monster performance, we may be looking at Carson Wentz’s rival for Rookie of the Year.
Green Bay is dealing with an injury to lead back Eddie Lacy, and while it’s not considered serious, it was serious enough for him to miss part of the last game against the Giants. Backup James Starks missed practice due to both a knee injury and a death in the family, leaving his status for Sunday’s game uncertain. Given that they are the only two running backs on the Green Bay roster, that might mean Aaron Rodgers is forced to take to the air more even if one or both of them suit up. Rodgers is averaging a touchdown for every 15.44 passes this year, the third-best mark in the league behind only Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan. Dallas’ defense has been surprisingly strong this year, but this is where they can be attacked. Dallas is allowing a passing touchdown once every 20.78 attempts, good for 20th in the league. If Rodgers can take advantage of this, Green Bay has a chance to win.
Using my handy scientific method of comparing the scoring and points allowed of each team vs. the league average and factoring in home field advantage we come up with the PhillyInfluencer.com predicted score of Dallas 33, Green Bay 27 (overtime).
If betting was legal: Take Dallas plus the points.
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New York (-3) at Baltimore
If the previous game was the most interesting game on the NFC East slate, this is likely the least interesting. The reeling New York Giants take on the slightly less reeling Baltimore Ravens. New York comes in having lost three straight while the Ravens have dropped two in a row. The Ravens are allowing the sixth fewest points in the league, while the Giants are scoring the sixth fewest. That seems like a very bad combination for the G-Men. The Ravens have been a Jekyll and Hyde team on offense. They’ve scored less than 20 on all the odd-numbered weeks, and no fewer than 25 on the even-numbered weeks. Last week, I thought Baltimore would break the pattern. I was wrong. I don’t think that this time around. I’m going to give the benefit of the doubt to new offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg. I think he’s going to give the Ravens a bit of a boost here and they’re going to reach the 25-point mark this week. Running the stats through our predicted score analysis gives us Baltimore 18, New York 17. I don’t see the game breaking that way, though. I think Baltimore goes over the 18 and New York goes over their 17. I wouldn’t be surprised to see New York win this game either.
I’m going to give the official prediction of Baltimore 27, New York 21.
If betting was legal: Take Baltimore plus the points.
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Philadelphia (-2.5) at Washington
The Eagles suffered their first loss of the season last week while Washington rattled off their third straight win. Washington surprised me when they won against Baltimore. I don’t see that same outcome this week. The Birds have been too good this year to drop two in a row, even on the road; their defense allows the second fewest points in the league while Washington is 19th in that category. The Birds are also scoring the third most points in the league while Washington is 16th in that category. All the signs point to this being a Philadelphia romp; and I think that’s exactly what we’ll see.
Given that Jordan Reed has a concussion and may not play, the Redskins are potentially down a major weapon. Reed has been their leading receiver this season. While I think that DeSean Jackson will shake off his poor play and get up for a game against his former team, especially one with stakes such as this, I don’t think it will be enough. The Eagles are a team that, unlike the Redskins, don’t seem to have a variety of weapons. When you look at the Redskins, you know Reed is a threat and you know Jackson is a threat. When you look at the Eagles, maybe you look at Zach Ertz? Darren Sproles? To me the Eagles are a team that is greater than the sum of its parts. That’s a credit to how good the quarterback has been and how good the head coach has been. I think that those two will continue to raise the level of this team.
I’m predicting Philadelphia 35, Washington 21.
If betting was legal: Take Philadelphia laying the points.
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Each week I’m going to take a look at three of the NFC East individuals that are flying high, and three that have come crashing to earth a bit recently.
THREE UP:
- Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas
I can’t say enough about how tremendous Elliott has been. I did an entire feature in the last column on him. But regardless, he has to top this list again as through five weeks, he’s likely been the division’s best player. Dallas will continue to go how he goes. Dak Prescott has been a revelation for Dallas at quarterback and has provided a stability they didn’t have in 2015 when Tony Romo went down. But at the end of the day, it’s Elliott who is the star on that team, and he’s shining very brightly right now.
- Jason Garrett, Head Coach, Dallas
Garrett has done a tremendous job handling his rookie quarterback. He’s put him in a position to succeed with a great gameplan built around the running game and taking timely shots in the passing game. Prescott has shined in the four games where his attempts haven’t gone over 40. Garrett recognized after Week 1 that putting the ball in the air 45 times likely wasn’t the best course of action even with a rookie as polished as Prescott. Since then, Dallas has been rolling. Garrett’s team has already matched its 2015 win total. While he’s a bit neutered by an owner/general manager who regularly oversteps his bounds, Garrett continues to have his team ready to play week in and week out this year.
- Dak Prescott, Quarterback, Dallas
I have given Prescott credit in this column a number of times, but I haven’t featured him in this section yet. He absolutely deserves to be here. Prescott has six total touchdowns in his last three games, has yet to throw an interception this season and has generally been a steadying influence on a team that could have fallen to pieces when Romo went down… again. His poise is ridiculous for his age and his talent is immense. He’s currently the 10th highest rated quarterback in the league (minimum 40 attempts) and ranks ahead of guys like Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson and Drew Brees. Prescott is the real deal. The days of sitting on the bench and waiting your turn in the NFL are becoming a thing of the past… unless you’re Jared Goff. Guys like Luck, Wilson, Prescott, and Wentz are part of the reason for that.
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THREE DOWN:
- Jerry Reese, General Manager, New York
Reese has gotten a lot of credit for bringing two Super Bowls to the Giants in his tenure, but those same two Super Bowls didn’t save Tom Coughlin’s job. You could even likely argue that Coughlin was more instrumental to the Super Bowl runs than Reese was. The Giants were an underdog in seven out of the eight playoff games in those seasons. It’s not like Reese put together a juggernaut; instead, he put together a team that peaked at the right time under a coach who by all accounts changed his ways to connect with his team. Now Coughlin is gone and Reese went on a monstrous offseason Dan Snyder-esque spending spree that has netted a 2-3 record, a three-game losing a streak and a head coach who might just be overmatched. Something tells me if ownership had a do-over, Reese would be gone and Coughlin would remain.
- Eli Manning, QB, New York
Eli Manning was dreadful against Green Bay last week. His play, in my estimation, was the number one factor preventing New York from having a chance against the Packers. He has thrown two touchdowns against three interceptions in his last four games. He’s seen his yards per attempt drop below six in each of the last two weeks and his completion percentage drop below 60% in both games. His quarterback rating has dropped from 80 in Week 1 to 79.5 in Week 2 to 54.1 in Week 3 to just a shade over 20 in each of the last two games. Manning is playing some of the worst football of his career right now. The only worse stretch that I could find was in 2012 where he hung back-to-back QBRs under 20 against the Steelers and Bengals. As much as I question Reese, Manning is the one who is the biggest culprit for New York’s failure to this point.
- Ben McAdoo, Head Coach, New York
McAdoo has led his team to three straight losses, and that is not acceptable. In that time, we’ve seen Odell Beckham lose his mind and get called out by his coach in public [which I can tell you from living through the T.O. debacle is about the worst way possible to handle a headcase wide receiver.] You don’t want to draw attention to someone who’s already drawn enough attention to themselves. Where McAdoo handled things properly was that instead of isolating his star player Beckham, he crafted a gameplan against Green Bay that actively featured his young wideout. Unfortunately his quarterback couldn’t get the ball to him as effectively as he needed to. McAdoo has to figure out how to right this ship.
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That’s it for this week. Don’t forget to check out all the other great content here at the site. Our writers are second to none. I’ll see you next week with a review of all the Week 6 action in the NFC East. Want to discuss the column or football in general? Find me on Twitter (@faux_philly).
Thanks for reading and have a great football weekend!