Tim O'Keefe
Season record: 18-10
The Phillies are in the midst of the National League Championship Series, the Eagles are the last undefeated team in the National Football League at 6-0, the Sixers Flyers have started the season exceeding expectations already, and we had another strong week last week, putting us at 18-10 (64%!) on the season. Let’s get to the plays for this week!
NCAAF: Indiana vs. Rutgers — 12 p.m. ET, Saturday, (Big 10 Network)
It’s not the sexiest game on the Big Ten slate, but this is a huge game for Indiana and Rutgers, as they both are on thin ice already if they want to make bowl season. Both teams sit on the eastern side of the Big Ten conference, and have very difficult schedules remaining. Indiana still has Penn State and Ohio State on the schedule, while Rutgers still has to play Penn State and Michigan.
Both the Hoosiers and Scarlet Knights come into this match-up on losing streaks of three or more, but there are some differences in how those losses and their schedule coming into this match-up should effect their outcomes this weekend. First of all, Rutgers is coming off of a bye week, meaning they’ve had two weeks to prep for this game in their own building. Indiana hasn’t had a bye since their season started back on September 2. The Hoosiers are also yet to win a game on the road this year as they are leaving Indiana for the first time in three weeks.
Rutgers defense has proven to be solid in their own building, with the most points they’ve allowed 14 or less points in two of their three contests in Piscataway.
Take Rutgers -3. Check out any odds changes here.
NCAAF: Iowa vs. Ohio State — 12 p.m. ET, Saturday (FOX)
I’m not trying to tell you that we have an upset special coming here [the Hawkeyes come in as 30-point underdogs], but there is something to where too many points is too many points. Iowa has had a mediocre start to the season at 3-3, but they are still overall a decent team in the Big Ten. Their defense has actually been very solid overall, allowing only more than 10 points once so far this season.
Again, I’m not saying that Ohio State will fall into that line, but I do believe in Iowa’s ability to at least contain them a bit (let’s say, hold them to 35 points or so). That would mean to cover the spread, Iowa’s offense would need to muster a single touchdown, which isn’t a guarantee for them as it’s been rough on that side of the ball, but in what is their most high profile game remaining this year, I think they get the job done.
Also, the Buckeyes haven’t beat the Hawkeyes by 30 since 1999, and this spread is just too damn big.
Take Iowa +30. Check out any odds changes here.
NCAAF: Ole Miss vs. LSU — 3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (CBS)
I hate to say it because I think Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss are so much more fun, but I like LSU in this spot. Brian Kelly’s team has had far more tests this season, and while they were blown out by Tennessee, they’ve looked very respectable in every other test this year (wins over Auburn, Mississippi State, and Florida). Ole Miss is No. 7 in the country, but they really only have one signature win against Kentucky.
What is more concerning to me is that they really haven’t had a tough road game this year. Their only two road wins are against Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt. Neither of those environments are 10% of what they will be up against in Death Valley on Saturday.
Brian Kelly and LSU may be lame now that Coach O is gone, but they will win this game.
Take LSU -2. Check out any odds changes here.
NFL: Packers vs. Commanders — 1 p.m., Sunday (FOX)
Things are looking down in Green Bay at the moment, and rightfully so. They’ve lost back-to-back games to the Giants and Jets which in years past might have been a sign of the apocalypse. But nevertheless, I’m feeling somewhat confident in the Pack this weekend, and think we are about to have an Aaron Rodgers “Relax” moment. Is the Packers offense one dimensional? Sure, but they still have the reigning MVP and won’t be held down forever. Washington allowed 20+ points in every game this season except last week’s Thursday night game against the Bears.
The Commanders’ offense has also been very poor this season, failing to get over 17 points in each of their last four contests. While the Packers have struggled on offense, their defense is still one of the better units in the league and Washington will struggle regardless who is at QB.
Take Packers -4.5. Check out any odds changes here.
NFL: Lions vs. Cowboys — 1 p.m., Sunday (CBS)
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before… Dallas’ defense is good. Yes, the Birds handled them this past weekend, but the Birds are an unstoppable juggernaut of a team at the moment. Dallas’ defense should have more success against a Lions offense this weekend that was shutout their last time on the field against the Patriots. The Lions are also missing several key players on offense, which will limit the impact Jared Goff and company will be able to do even if they weren’t playing a very good defense.
On the Cowboys side, Dak Prescott is likely back which you would think will give them a jump on offense. I’m not saying it won’t but let’s also not assume Prescott will turn them back into some sort of offensive powerhouse. The last time we saw him at the helm before his injury, the Cowboys had three points through three quarters of the Sunday Night Football opener. The Cowboys will still be limited on offense despite his return, and this game screams low scoring to me.
Take Under 49. Check out any odds changes here.
NFL: Jets vs. Broncos — 4:05 p.m. ET, Sunday (CBS)
Similarly to the LSU play above, this play really hurts me to take, but it’s just what I see coming. You know I’ve been all over the Jets this season, and we’ve had a lot of success with them, but this just feels like a letdown spot on the road in mile high for them. Coming off a dominant win against the Packers, this is the highest the Jets have flown in years, but they should be getting some points in this matchup and their not, as it currently sits as a pick’em.
Yes, the Broncos are a mess on the other side, but this is a bit of a must-win game for them and despite my questions about their ability and season outlook, I expect them to step up in this spot. Russell Wilson is a fraud, I’ve said it before, but he just needs to be average in this game and Denver’s defense could carry the Broncos to a win.
If this game happened Week 1, the Broncos would be seven or eight-point favorites, and while we do need to use our new information, we also need to not overreact to recent results.
Take Broncos ML. Check out any odds changes here.
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
You can follow Tim O’Keefe on Twitter (@TKO_Picks) and e-mail him at [email protected]
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