Adrian’s Notebook: Grading Doug Pederson’s Week 12 Play Calling against the Bills

 “I was able to call plays since the Pittsburgh game on,” he said. “Coach Reid and I had a great understanding and great feel for the game. He allowed me to call the second half of every football game from that game on.”

That Steelers game was the start of Kansas City’s stunning turnaround in 2015. The Chiefs were in the midst of a five-game losing streak and 1-5 heading into that Week 7 contest, but their 23-13 triumph was the beginning of their 10-game winning streak to close the regular season. The victory over the Bills moved Kansas City to 6-5.

The Chiefs held a lead at the break in nine of the 12 games Pederson called plays and six were by 10-or-more points, so he was usually put in positive circumstances. Week 12 was the first of three instances that Kansas City trailed heading into the locker room while Pederson was in charge of the play calling. In the games I’ve covered so far prior to this, Pederson had leads of six, 21, 19 and nine to work with. 

This time the Chiefs trailed by two, so besides maybe the Pittsburgh game, this was one of the few occurrences where we could really get a good gauge on how Pederson handled himself in a close game.

Turned out he did just fine.

Let’s go possession by possession.

How the grading works:

To put it simply a (+) is a win for the offense, a (-) is a win for the defense and a (/) is a tie. For example, if a team has a 1st and 10 and the offense picks up five-or-more yards it’s a win for them. It’s a victory for the defense if they hold the offense to three yards or fewer. A four-yard gain is a tie.

An offensive touchdown results into (+++), but a turnover forced by the defense gets (- – -). A field goal is (++) and a safety (- -).

(++)- Offense gains 15-29 yards past the original line of scrimmage. If the offense commits a holding penalty and they pick up 15 yards on a 1st and 20, the offense gets just one (+) instead of two.

(+++)- 30-49 yards

(++++)- 50-74 yards

(+++++)- 75-or-more yards

Other notes: A 75-yard TD gets (++++++++) and any pick-six/fumble recovery for a score results into (- – – – – – – -). Another example, if the defense forces a turnover and returns it for 50 yards, they will receive (- – – – – – -). If the defense forces a three-and-out they get a bonus of (- -).

 

KC 1st drive of second half: 15:00 left in the third quarter, ball at own 36 trailing 16-14

1+10 (36)- 11 personnel- Travis Kelce picks up five yards on a bubble screen in the right flat (+)

2+5 (41)- 11 personnel- Albert Wilson quick slant nine yards (+)

1+10 (50)- 10 personnel- Holding (/)

1+20 (40)- 20 personnel- Maclin eight yards on a stop route (-)

2+12 (48)- 10 personnel- Maclin 33-yard reception on a wheel route (+++)

1+10 (19)- 10 personnel- Smith gains four on a zone read off the left edge (/)

2+6 (15)- 13 personnel- Kelce 15-yard touchdown on a post pattern (+++)

8-1 KC on drive

To combat the blitzing tendencies of Rex Ryan, Pederson used a lot of three to four wide receiver sets and had Smith taking quick drops so he could get the ball out of his hand quickly. Five of the six plays on the drive were called passes and four of the five throws had at least three wide receivers in the formation. Even on the 33-yard catch by Maclin, Smith took a quick drop, but lofted a beautifully thrown ball with perfect touch and trajectory to allow Maclin to run under it. Pederson did a good job of getting him involved on the march. Maclin had already racked up 140 yards following the 33-yarder.

 
On the touchdown toss to Kelce, the Chiefs lined up in a power run look with just one wide receiver lined up on the left side of the formation and three tight ends on the right side of the offensive line. All three tight ends ran vertical routes, with Kelce running a post. He boxed out rookie Ronald Darby in the end zone before plucking the ball out of the air for the score.

 
This was a very impressive drive by Pederson and the best one he’s called since I started this weekly series.

 

KC 2nd drive of second half: 9:42 left in the third quarter, ball at Bills’ 34 leading 21-16

1+10 (34)- 21 personnel- Ware right tackle five yards (+)

2+5 (29)- 21 personnel- Ware loses two yards on a swing pass in the left flat (-)

3+7 (31)- 20 personnel- Deep post intended for Chris Conley was incomplete (-)

4+7 (31)- Cairo Santos’ 49-yard field goal was good (++)

3-2 KC on drive, 11-3 KC in second half

The Chiefs were able to regain possession in Bills territory after Tyrod Taylor held onto the ball too long, allowing Tamba Hali enough time to beat right tackle Seantrel Henderson and strip-sack Taylor from behind.

Pederson went to a pistol look on second down, but Nigel Bradham wasn’t fooled on a swing pass to Ware in the left flat and made an immediate tackle for a loss of two yards. The Bills brought a blitz on third down, leaving Conley one on one against Darby on a deep post. Conley had a step on the Florida State product and check out all of the open terrain to the left for Smith to throw to. Instead, Smith threw to the middle of the field and the pass was just out of the reach of the first-year wideout.

 

KC 3rd drive of second half: 3:11 left in the third quarter, ball at own 21 leading 24-22

1+10 (21)- 10 personnel- Ware left tackle six yards (+)

2+4 (27)- 13 personnel- Smith scrambles for two yards (/)

3+2 (29)- 10 personnel- Kelce quick slant 38 yards (+++)

1+10 (33)- 11 personnel- Ware left tackle loss of one yard (-)

2+11 (34)- 12 personnel- Incomplete pass to Kelce in the right flat (-)

3+11 (34)- 10 personnel- Smith 11-yard scramble (+)

1+10 (23)- 20 personnel- Ware three yards up the middle on a draw (-)

2+7 (20)- 11 personnel- Smith scrambles for no gain (-)

3+7 (20)- 11 personnel- Maclin no gain on a wide receiver screen (-)

4+7 (20)- Santos 38-yard field goal good (++)

7-5 KC on drive, 18-8 KC in second half

The Bills got within two following LeSean McCoy’s touchdown reception, but they were unable to convert the two-point conversion, which kept Kansas City in front.

Once again, we’re seeing the quick passing game with three to four wide receiver sets. Kelce toasted cornerback Leodis McKelvin to move the chains on a 3rd-and-2 quick slant. Smith immediately noticed that Preston Brown picked up Ware in the left flat, which left the middle of the field vacant for Kelce to rumble for 38 yards and put the Chiefs in field-goal range.

 
Smith scrambled for 11 yards up the middle on the ensuing third down, but Pederson elected to call a very conservative wide receiver screen to Maclin on a 3rd-and-6. Safety Corey Graham wrapped up Maclin immediately and the Chiefs had to settle for a 38-yard Santos field goal.
 

 
I can understand calling the flip out to Maclin on a 3rd-and-short or if Kansas City was up by multiple scores, but it was only up two with 13 minutes left in the final frame. And it wasn’t like Buffalo was shutting Kansas City down defensively either. What happened to the multiple wide receiver sets and quick drops that had been working all game?

 

KC 4th drive of second half: 10:01 left in the fourth quarter, ball at own 11 leading 27-22

1+10 (11)- 12 personnel- Ware counter right tackle 35 yards (+++)

1+10 (46)- 20 personnel- Incomplete to Kelce on a post corner route (-)

2+10 (46)- 12 personnel- Ware left tackle six yards (+)

3+4 (48)- 11 personnel- Maclin quick out nine yards (+)

1+10 (39)- 12 personnel- Davis counter right guard one yard (-)

2+9 (38)- 21 personnel- Ware counter left guard three yards (-)

3+6 (35)- 11 personnel- Maclin wide receiver screen 11 yards (+)

1+10 (24)- 21 personnel- Roughing the passer (+)

1+10 (12)- 12 personnel- Holding (/)

1+20 (22)- 21 personnel- Ware left guard three yards (-)

2+17 (19)- 11 personnel- Smith throws it away (-)

3+17 (19)- 10 personnel- Albert Wilson wide receiver screen no gain (-)

4+16 (19)- Santos’ 37-yard field goal was good (++)

9-6 KC on drive, 27-14 KC in second half

Huge push off the right side of the line by Jah Reid and Demetrius Harris paved the way for Ware and a gain of 35 yards on a counter play. That’s a quick way to get yourself out of semi-poor field position.

 
Pederson again went with a wide receiver screen to Maclin on a 3rd-and-6, but this time he got great blocks by J. Reid and Kelce to spring him for 11 yards. Although it wouldn’t have been my call of choice, the execution was flawless.
 

 
The drive may not have resulted into a touchdown, a hold by Laurent Duvarney-Tardif essentially killed it, but it took 6:31 off the clock and left Buffalo with just 3:30 to attempt and tie the contest. The Chiefs have scored on all four of their possessions in the second half so far.

 

KC 5th drive of second half: 2:07 left in the fourth quarter, ball at Bills 29 leading 30-22

1+10 (29)- 31 personnel- Ware five yards up the middle (+)

2+5 (24)- 31 personnel- Ware up the middle two yards (-)

3+3 (22)- 22 personnel- Ware left guard three yards (+)

1+10 (19)- kneel (/)

2-1 KC on drive, 29-15 KC in second half

The Chiefs are just running out the clock here and Ware’s three-yard plunge on third down sealed the outcome. As you can see, according to my scoring, the Chiefs nearly doubled up the Bills in the second half.

 

Overall Thoughts:

Following a pair of underwhelming performances, Pederson had his best one so far in Week 12.

Pederson countered Rex Ryan’s heavy blitzing defense with a quick passing game that featured numerous formations with three and four wide receiver sets. He was able to help put the Chiefs in front on their opening possession of the second half. Smith didn’t take more than a three-step drop on the march, even the deep ball to Maclin.

And speaking of Maclin, he had just 81 yards receiving combined over his last three games coming in. Pederson did an excellent job of getting his star receiver involved in the second half.

Pederson’s Chiefs also took 6:31 off the clock during a fourth quarter field-goal drive that gave Kansas City a 30-22 advantage with 3:30 left. He was able to mix the short passing and power run game together to effectively matriculate the ball down the field.

While I wasn’t a fan of some of the conservative play calling on third down, it didn’t come close to overshadowing all the good he had done.

This was a really good game from Pederson, I gave him an A-.

 

STEELERS WEEK 7 GAME GRADE: B

LIONS WEEK 8 GAME GRADE: N/A

WEEK 9: BYE

BRONCOS WEEK 10 GAME GRADE: C-

CHARGERS WEEK 11 GAME GRADE: D+