Tony Cutillo
As the world of Fantasy Football evolves, so do the theories and assumptions of players. Everyone has their own style and reasoning for their selections, whether it be during the draft or even the waiver wire pickups. One of these theories is the third year wide receiver breakout rule. It’s something that is as concrete as the Bible among a high percentage of players.
The thought always hanging around is that most wide receivers do not bust out until their third year. While at times tends to be true, the newer age of players coming from the college ranks in combination with the heavy NFL passing attack has led to more unexpected rookie production. For example, Odell Beckham, Jr., Mike Evans and Kelvin Benjamin were standout fantasy options in their rookie season, combining for an unprecedented 398 targets, 232 receptions, 3,364 yards and 33 touchdowns in their respective 2014 campaigns. I honestly do not think we’ll ever see such a polished first group unveiled again and blast out this kind of production in their first year.
The third-year receiver theory is something that some fantasy owners still buy into, but others will tend to ignore. Sure, some of the best receivers to every wear a jersey have had breakout years in their third season, including Cris Carter, Terrell Owens and Keyshawn Johnson. But, like I mentioned previously, in the new era of the NFL it may not make a difference today.
When we gear up for our upcoming drafts, we consistently ask ourselves the same question: Who is ready to make the leap up to the next level? The question I pose to you is: Do you bank on the wide receiver theory? Either way you feel, the draft is filled with potential breakout stars every year, but 2016 could be the best group yet! Here are the guys I feel will breakout in their third year, if you do buy into that theory.
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Donte Moncrief
The Indianapolis Colts have no problem erasing the memories of their 2015 offensive campaign. After losing Andrew Luck, who wasn’t having a prototypical year anyway, they tried everyone under center that had a pulse. Hey, they even pulled Josh Freeman from his day job of changing tires at the local car mechanic. If you combine that with an offensive line that got turned around more than the Macy’s door in the movie Elf, results were less than ideal.
Thankfully for the Lucas Oil faithful, their franchise QB is back and he has a core group of receivers ready to show their promise. One of those is former 3rd round pick, Donte Moncrief. Moncrief has always shown flashes of his potential, but has lived behind a guy named Hilton. Last year his stat line was 64/733/6 and he was the cool recipient of 105 targets. These numbers are pretty impressive considering he had everyone except Mark Rypien throwing him a ball last year.
His ADP has him going anywhere between rounds 6-10. Considering the fact that your lineup should already be established by that time, cashing in on a 3rd year breakout candidate that has all the ability to push T.Y. Hilton for #1 WR status could be a steal.
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John Brown
John Brown is a very intriguing player who has the size and speed of a guy reminiscent of the last name Harrison. While he will never eclipse the same career, he surely will give us plenty of excitement during his time in Arizona.
Going into 2015, the Arizona Cardinals were still Larry Fitzgerald’s team with a little touch of Michael Floyd on the outside. With father time eventually going to catch Fitzgerald and the promise of Floyd’s breakout running thin with fantasy owners, Brown is the name to know in the desert.
Last season, Brown showed his all around capabilities and silenced the critics who said he was just another deep ball prodigy, ala Desean Jackson. His efficiency and consistency were the keys to his success last year as he scored in double digits 12 games, including a stretch where he went 10 out of 11 between Weeks 4 and 16. On a team coached by Bruce Arians, who mad the most of his WR core in Indianapolis for all those years, his numbers should eclipse 70+/1100+/8+ this year. Not a bad deal for a WR that can be had in round 6.
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Kelvin Benjamin
Can you hear it now? Can you feel all the negativity surrounding Panther camp? Kelvin Benjamin became a household name in 2014 for the Carolina Panthers and lived in the red zone. An unfortunate ACL tear made his sophomore season disappear and now he’s ready to show he’s no one hit wonder.
Reports out of Carolina have Benjamin out of shape, hunched over in the huddle and looking like Dan Connor in a late episode of Roseanne. I refuse to believe that a guy who amassed 145 targets in his rookie year has now lost his magic. This isn’t the first time we heard about a player whose conditioning is in question. If I had a dollar for every story on a guy named Randy Moss who was never in shape, I may not be writing this article.
In my opinion, Benjamin will be fine and will help the Carolina offense be even deadlier this time around. Being drafted behind guys like Tavon Austin and DeVante Parker is not only a slap in the face, but an example of reporters buying into the negativity. I would draft Benjamin with confidence as a high-end WR2/low-end WR1.
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Willie Snead
Willie Snead continues to prove his doubters wrong as an undrafted rookie out of Ball State transformed into the No. 2 wide receiver on the New Orleans Saints. Drew Brees has turned the Saints into an offensive clinic over the years and has found him a new toy named Snead.
Coming into last season we all knew Snead would be involved in the week to week game plan, but producing a year of 70/990/3 was unexpected. The Saints will continue to be a high powered offense behind the vision of Sean Peyton and the arm of Drew Brees. Sure, they drafted Michael Thomas and signed Coby Fleener. However, Coby garners as much excitement as Joe Buck behind the mic. He ran with one of the best QBs in the game and could still only manage an average of 50 catches a year. I am confident that behind Cooks, Snead will put his stamp on the WR2 spot and eclipse last year’s numbers with ease. A line of 75+/1050+/5+ is highway robbery for a guy being drafted in rounds 8-12.
This is just a percentage of guys who I feel will break out in their third year building their story on the way to fantasy prominence. Do I believe in the third year WR theory? I feel there is no definitive answer. I definitely think there is a place for it in fantasy analytics, but to rely solely on it as a gauge of prediction I feel is misguided.
More from me:
Running Backs Who Live in the Later Rounds and Can Help You Win in 2016
Your 2016 Fantasy Football Overview: Keeping the Wide Receiver in Mind
As always, you can stop by my Facebook page (Fantasy Sports Addiction) or tweet me (@TCutillo23) for questions or some nice fantasy debates. I can also be heard weekly via the internet stream live at WENG RADIO every Monday at 4:00 P.M. ET for a weekend sports wrap. But most importantly, you can catch me here at Pi!