Tim O'Keefe
Blog Record: 122-84-5
Man, it’s good to be back. You may have noticed a lack of picks this past week, as I was away on a bachelor party for my cousin. I’ll keep this short and sweet before jumping right into our plays for tonight – I did learn something on this trip being the slightly oldest guy on the trip (rest of the group was one-to-two years younger). Red Bull might give you wings, but it’s because it steals your soul for the next day. Now that my hangover is almost 75% gone (haven’t drank at all in two days and still feeling it), let’s get back to what we are good for here: sports betting.
MLB: Rangers vs. Astros – 8:10 P.M. ET
I really wanted to bet against the Astros here and go big dog money on Texas… and if you choose to do so I like the play. But on second look its not my favorite play in this game.
Kyle Gibson for Texas is a journeyman who has really found his stride this year. He has consistently gone deep into games for the Rangers (who really need it) and his ERA sits at 2.13. The 33-year-old will likely be moved at the trade deadline, but until that happens I think we will keep getting good value with him as long as he stays under the radar in Texas. On the other side, Lance McCullers Jr. also has a sub-3 ERA, and is facing a Texas lineup that really doesn’t strike a whole ton of fear into anyone.
The total is sitting at 4.5 for the first five innings of this game, and I’m buying into both starters holding their own.
Take under 4.5 runs in the F5.
…
MLB: Marlins vs. Cardinals – 8:15 P.M. ET
I’m going to start with something for pure awareness sake, as not many people know this… Trevor Rogers for Miami has been a stud this year. Kid is 23 years old, with a live arm and currently has a 2.02 ERA for a Marlins team that has hidden how good he really has been.
He is going to be facing a St. Louis Cardinals team that has been dying like dogs in June, as they are 3-9 since the calendar turned. I understand that the Marlins aren’t anything special either (29-37), but recent trends and streaks have helped plenty of baseball bettors make some money this season.
I’ve got the easily superior pitcher in this matchup at even money… I’m taking it.
Take Marlins +100.
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NBA: Bucks vs. Nets – 8:30 P.M. ET, TNT
If you’ve been following, you know in our last post (which was a 1-1 split overall) that this game was a disaster pick for me. I took the Bucks in Game 2, and they were smacked around like a dog’s new chew toy. Obviously, since then the Bucks have won two games and we have an electric series on our hands here. Was Sean Brace right calling it the best second round match-up in NBA history? At least there is a chance of the argument now.
So let’s dive into tonight. We know Kyrie is still out, and Harden is going to be a game-time decision, but is “planning” to play. Brooklyn does come back home here, where they won the first two games of the series as well. But, on the other hand, the Bucks absolutely dominated Game 4 with a double-digit win.
All that going on, the sides for me scare me in this match-up. What I really love though is the total. Currently sitting at 221, these teams haven’t sniffed that since Game 1. Yes I know Harden might be back like I mentioned, but this has become a slower paced defensive series, and that total is a big jump over our last three games.
Take Under 221.
Like I said to start, it feels good to be back… now let’s make it all better with some wins!
Good luck to all!
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
You can follow Tim O’Keefe on Twitter (@TKO_Picks) and e-mail him at [email protected].
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