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Adrian’s Notebook: Grading Doug Pederson’s Week 15 Play Calling against the Ravens

Marcus Peters’ execution of  the Ray Lewis dance might’ve been poorly executed, but he had plenty of reason to celebrate.

He wasn’t the Defensive Rookie of the Year by season’s end for nothing.

Peters had a pair of interceptions, including a 90-yard pick-six clincher, and the Kansas City Chiefs won their eighth straight game with a 34-14 win over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 15.

Peters read Jimmy Clausen’s eyes, cut in front of Daniel Brown for the easy interception and raced the other way, trotting the final 50 yards along the left sideline before crossing the goal line. He added his second pick minutes later to give him seven on the season at the time, the most by a rookie cornerback since Dale Carter in 1992.

After being acquired in a trade with the Chicago Bears, Clausen started his second straight game in place of the injured Joe Flacco, who tore his ACL during a Week 11 victory over the then-St. Louis Rams. Baltimore had an NFL-most 18 players on injured reserve at the time, including 14 on offense.

Tyvon Branch returned a fumble 73 yards for a score and a blocked punt led to another touchdown for Kansas City, which moved to 9-5 on the year.

That’s basically 21 points from the defense and special teams, making life really easy for play callers Andy Reid and Doug Pederson.

Prior to his introductory press conference in January there were reports saying that the Chiefs head coach Reid allowed Pederson to call plays, but nobody knew how often. During the presser, Pederson explained how much latitude he was granted.

His answer may have raised a few eyebrows.

“I was able to call plays since the Pittsburgh game on,” he said. “Coach Reid and I had a great understanding and great feel for the game. He allowed me to call the second half of every football game from that game on.”

That Steelers game was the start of Kansas City’s stunning turnaround in 2015. The Chiefs were in the midst of a five-game losing streak and 1-5 heading into that Week 7 contest, but their 23-13 triumph was the beginning of their 10-game winning streak to close the regular season.

The Chiefs held a lead at the break in nine of the 12 games Pederson called plays and six were by 10-or-more points, so he was usually put in positive circumstances. Week 15 was one of the six that Pederson had a double-digit advantage to work with.

Reid helped Kansas City race out to a 24-14 cushion heading into the locker room.

Let’s go possession by possession and see how Pederson fared.

 

How the grading works:

To put it simply a (+) is a win for the offense, a (-) is a win for the defense and a (/) is a tie. For example, if a team has a 1st and 10 and the offense picks up five-or-more yards it’s a win for them. It’s a victory for the defense if they hold the offense to three yards or fewer. A four-yard gain is a tie.

An offensive touchdown results into (+++), but a turnover forced by the defense gets (- – -). A field goal is (++) and a safety (- -).

(++)- Offense gains 15-29 yards past the original line of scrimmage. If the offense commits a holding penalty and they pick up 15 yards on a 1st and 20, the offense gets just one (+) instead of two.

(+++)- 30-49 yards

(++++)- 50-74 yards

(+++++)- 75-or-more yards

Other notes: A 75-yard TD gets (++++++++) and any pick-six/fumble recovery for a score results into (- – – – – – – -). Another example, if the defense forces a turnover and returns it for 50 yards, they will receive (- – – – – – -). If the defense forces a three-and-out they get a bonus of (- -).

 

KC 1st drive of second half: 13:32 left in the third quarter, ball at own 47 leading 24-14

1+10 (47)- 21 personnel- Charcandrick West swing pass left loss of three yards (-)

2+13 (44)- 11 personnel- West left guard loss of two yards (-)

3+15 (42)- 10 personnel- Maclin wide receiver screen nine yards (-)

5-0 Bal on the drive

Pederson explained in a press conference last week that Darren Sproles will have an “extensive” role with the Eagles this season. Reid has always liked to use his running backs in the passing game and with a lack of options in the receiving core, the 33-year-old Sproles could be an x-factor.

We’ll be seeing a lot of instances of him being shifted around like West was below. He was originally lined up out wide to the left, motioned into the backfield to set up a pistol look, and received a swing pass into the left flat. Ravens linebacker Courtney Upshaw did an outstanding job of reading the play and got the initial hit on West before his teammates converged and took down West for a loss of three.

 

 

This particular play might’ve been sniffed out, but this is how you want to utilize a talent like Sproles, in space and matched up one-on-one against linebackers.

Pederson played it safe on 3rd-and-15 up 10 against an inferior opponent without its starting quarterback. Maclin got good blocking on the screen to the right boundary, but still came up six yards shy of the line to gain.

 

KC 2nd drive of second half: 6:07 left in the third quarter, ball at own 7 leading 24-14

1+10 (7)- 21 personnel- West right tackle loss of one (-)

2+11 (6)- 10 personnel- West left guard six yards (/)

3+5 (12)- 11 personnel- Jason Avant crossing route six yards (+)

1+10 (18)- 21 personnel- West off right tackle loss of two (-)

2+12 (16)- 11 personnel- West right tackle two yards (-)

3+10 (18)- 10 personnel- Avant quick out route six yards (-)

4-1 Bal on drive, 9-1 Bal in second half

One thing I’ve noticed from Pederson over the games I’ve covered is how conservative he is on third-and-long. On the first drive he called a wide receiver screen to Maclin on 3rd-and-15 and here, it’s a quick out to Avant on 3rd-and-10. Again, I can understand wanting to play it safe and not wanting to turn the ball over and sway momentum when you’re up 10 to an inferior opponent on the road, but I would’ve liked to see something a bit more aggressive. A quick slant or crossing route would’ve been better. This play never had a shot.

 

 

Earlier in the drive on 3rd-and-5, we saw Avant move the chains with a crossing route, so Pederson does have his receivers run routes past the sticks when the third down is more manageable. But 3rd-and-10 is certainly a down and distance that can be converted.

 

 

 

KC 3rd drive of second half: :33 left in the third quarter, ball at own 5 leading 24-14

1+10 (5)- 21 personnel- West left guard five yards (+)

2+5 (10)- 11 personnel- West left guard six yards (+)

1+10 (16)- 11 personnel- Albert Wilson stop route seven yards (+)

2+3 (23)- False start (/)

2+8 (23)- 11 personnel- Shareece Wright pass breakup on Maclin’s comeback (-)

3+8 (18)- 12 personnel- West dump off left flat 12 yards (+)

1+10 (30)- 21 personnel- Travis Kelce right seam 29 yards (++)

1+10 (41)- 10 personnel- West left guard four yards (/)

2+6 (37)- 10 personnel- Maclin stop route seven yards (+)

1+10 (30)- 10 personnel- Kelce screen right six yards (+)

2+4 (24)- 10 personnel- West left guard six yards (+)

1+10 (18)- 11 personnel- Knile Davis right guard two yards (-)

2+8 (16)- 10 personnel- Alex Smith sacked by Za’Darius Smith for a loss of one (-)

3+9 (17)- 11 personnel- West left guard draw two yards (-)

4+7 (15)- Santos 32-yard field goal (++)

8-4 KC on drive, 13-9 Bal in second half

The Chiefs picked up a 3rd-and-8 with West’s 12-yard catch and run. Smith scanned the right side of the field before coming back to West in the left flat. Baltimore was in a zone coverage and looking right allowed Smith to hold off C.J. Mosley enough so West could have enough space to pick up the first.

Too bad Wilson wasn’t the primary target because he was wide open on his out route to the left side of the formation. Pederson didn’t have any of his wideouts run routes short of the sticks on this play.

 

Pederson cranked up his aggressiveness a snap later, calling a play for Kelce along the right seam to beat the two-deep zone look from the Ravens. Smith dropped the ball in beautifully to Kelce behind the linebackers and in front of the safeties.

 

 

Later in the drive, Pederson tried to get cute with a 3rd-and-9 draw play and the Chiefs settled for a 32-yard Santos field goal to conclude the 14-play, 81-yard march, which took 8:41 off the clock. Peters’ 90-yard pick six on Baltimore’s ensuing possession put the game away.

 

KC 4th drive of second half: 2:50 left in the fourth quarter, ball at own 20 leading 34-14

1+10 (20)- 11 personnel- Davis right tackle three yards

2+7 (23)- 11 personnel- Davis right tackle loss of two yards

3+9 (21)- 11 personnel- Davis right guard seven yards

There’s no need to grade anything here, the Chiefs attempted to run out the clock.

 

KC 5th drive of second half: :57 left in the fourth quarter, ball at Baltimore 42 leading 34-14

1+10 (42)- kneel

1+10 (43)- kneel

 

Overall Thoughts:

This was a very restrained and underwhelming performance from Pederson. Yes, the Chiefs led by double digits throughout the second half and yes, letting your dominant defense take over and not committing mistakes offensively turned out to be an effective strategy in this instance. There also comes a point where being too conservative and playing not to lose can bite you in the ass.

Luckily for Kansas City, injury-plagued Baltimore was already looking forward to 2016 at this point in time.

Considering the Chiefs basically ran out the clock over their final two possessions, they only truly touched the ball three times in the second half. One was a three-and-out, another was a six-play trek that covered only 17 yards and the last was the lengthy 14-play march, but resulted into just three points.

A concerning characteristic I’m noticing from Pederson while I’ve been covering these games is how ultra-conservative he is on 3rd-and-10 or more. I can understand a screen or a draw on a 3rd-and-15 plus, but not on 3rd-and-10. Go for the first down, be aggressive!

That’s a scary thought heading into the season with a quarterback in Sam Bradford, who also has a cautious approach. I gave Pederson a D for this game.

 

STEELERS WEEK 7 GAME GRADE: B

LIONS WEEK 8 GAME GRADE: N/A

WEEK 9: BYE

BRONCOS WEEK 10 GAME GRADE: C-

CHARGERS WEEK 11 GAME GRADE: D+

BILLS WEEK 12 GRADE: A

RAIDERS WEEK 13 GRADE: B

CHARGERS WEEK 14 GRADE: C+

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