Tim O'Keefe
Blog Record: 136-100
In the words of many a character throughout history – “It’s about damn time.” I’ve been swamped with personal commitments and events that have prevented me from getting out picks over these past few weeks, but it’s time to get back into the swing of things.
Speaking of swings, we had one of the most exciting MLB All-Star weeks in recent memory with a great Home Run Derby and All-Star game last week, and the NBA Finals with the Bucks and Suns have been full of twists and turns. I know July isn’t the best month for sports, but with football right around the corner, let’s appreciate what we have in front of us.
MLB: Marlins vs. Nationals – 7:05 P.M. ET
If you heard me last week on the Daily Ticket with Sean Brace, then you know the Marlins have been statistically the unluckiest team in baseball so far this season. The Fish lost three of four in Philly out of the break, but this team is still better than what their record indicates.
They are facing off against Jon Lester Monday night, who the Marlins tagged for seven runs in 2.1 innings of work less than a month ago. The Marlins’ starter has not yet been confirmed for tonight, but DraftKings Sportsbook has listed Trevor Rogers as the expected option, and the likely ROY/All Star brings me an extra level of comfort with this pick.
Also, while the Marlins haven’t been great, they are only 3.5 games behind this underperforming Nationals team who had lost six straight before sneaking out yesterday’s 8-7 win over San Diego.
Take the Marlins +105ML.
Check out the latest odds here.
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MLB: Rangers vs. Tigers – 7:10 P.M. ET
A repeat pitching match-up from right before the break sees Kyle Gibson and Casey Mize take the mound against each other. Our play in that game was under in the F5, and I’m not seeing any reason to deviate. Both of these pitchers are having good years (Gibson an All-Star caliber one, and Mize steadily improving throughout) and neither of the offenses scare me.
While I also think there is good value to be had on taking the Rangers in the game, the First 5 under just seems like the better play to me, especially when it is up at 4.5 almost even money.
Take Under 4.5 F5.
Check out the latest odds here.
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MLB: Giants vs. Dodgers – 10:10 P.M. ET
One of the biggest questions in baseball is whether the Giants can keep doing what they’re doing with their current roster. The answer, to me, is yes.
It might be frustrating, to an extent, to see Gabe Kapler have so much success for the Giants, but he’s not the full reason for the Giants’ success, just like he wasn’t the full reason for the Phillies’ failures as the team’s manager. He is a unique guy who some people like and some people really hate, but whatever they have as a collective unit in San Francisco is certainly working.
One of those pieces that has been huge for San Francisco is Kevin Gausman. With the deGrom injury, Gausman is right there in the Cy Young race, and deservedly so with a 1.73 ERA this late in the campaign.
Currently, we can get the Giants at even money in the F5 innings, and with a guy like Gausman going, that is incredible value we are getting as bettors continue to undervalue the Giants.
Buy into Gausman, take Giants +100 F5.
Check out the latest odds here.
Good luck on your picks!
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
You can follow Tim O’Keefe on Twitter (@TKO_Picks) and e-mail him at [email protected].
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