Adrian Fedkiw
Poor clock management or sound strategy?
Andy Reid was ridiculed — nobody knew Doug Pederson was calling the plays yet — after the Kansas City Chiefs’ 27-20 loss to the New England Patriots in the Divisional Round of the 2015 playoffs for “taking forever” to score a touchdown on the Chiefs’ final drive of the game.
The Chiefs head coach Reid has been known as a poor clock manager throughout his career. While Pederson was the one calling the plays, it’s unknown who was the one dictating the tempo. Trailing 27-13, the Chiefs regained possession with 6:29 on the clock and kept the ball for 5:16 before finally scoring with just 1:13 left, but they did have all three of their timeouts. They subsequently failed the onside kick and New England ran off the remaining time to advance to the AFC Championship Game.
Here was Pederson’s explanation during his introductory press conference with the Eagles as their new head coach.
“It took so long because number one, (we) did not want to give Tom Brady the ball back. We knew we were going to score,” Pederson said. “We knew we had timeouts and time. We were also limited with the number of receivers. We had Jeremy Maclin out of the game at the time. We were down numbers. We felt like at that point not to give the ball back to Tom Brady. We still had timeouts and time even with the onside kick to put ourselves in a position to tie the football game.”
So a pretty silly explanation, or was it?
When watching this game over again, I understand the logic. The Patriots had scored on four of their last five meaningful drives — one was a one-play possession prior to halftime — and the Chiefs had no answer for Brady, who wasn’t sacked and barely even touched during the entire game. He picked Kansas City apart to the tune of 302 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 28-of-42 efficiency.
With three timeouts and only 1:13 on the clock after the Chiefs failed to recover the onside kick, the strategy was to limit Brady. Considering there’s that little time left, you’re most likely going to run the ball three times to run out the clock, thus “not giving the ball back to Brady.” With a little bit more time, New England might’ve ran its usual offense and the Chiefs would’ve wasted their timeouts.
Low and behold, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick put the game in Brady’s hand anyway.
And low and behold, Kansas City nearly got the ball back.
Julian Edelman hauled in a ricochet for a first down after outside linebacker Tamba Hali had the ball thrown right into his bread basket. Brady had attempted to connect with Rob Gronkowski on a quick slant.
Game over.
Reid’s history of poor clock management immediately discredited the strategy that was involved in this situation. But the logic of Reid or Pederson, whose ever it was, was fairly sound. It was just a bit unusual.
Prior to his introductory press conference in January there were reports saying that Reid allowed Pederson to call plays, but nobody knew how often. During the presser, Pederson explained how much latitude he was granted.
His answer may have raised a few eyebrows.
“I was able to call plays since the Pittsburgh game on,” he said. “Coach Reid and I had a great understanding and great feel for the game. He allowed me to call the second half of every football game from that game on.”
That Steelers game was the start of Kansas City’s stunning turnaround in 2015. The Chiefs were in the midst of a five-game losing streak and 1-5 heading into that Week 7 contest, but their 23-13 triumph was the beginning of their 10-game winning streak to close the regular season.
Let’s go possession by possession and see how Pederson fared.
How the grading works:
To put it simply a (+) is a win for the offense, a (-) is a win for the defense and a (/) is a tie. For example, if a team has a 1st and 10 and the offense picks up five-or-more yards it’s a win for them. It’s a victory for the defense if they hold the offense to three yards or fewer. A four-yard gain is a tie.
An offensive touchdown results into (+++), but a turnover forced by the defense gets (- – -). A field goal is (++) and a safety (- -).
(++)- Offense gains 15-29 yards past the original line of scrimmage. If the offense commits a holding penalty and they pick up 15 yards on a 1st and 20, the offense gets just one (+) instead of two.
(+++)- 30-49 yards
(++++)- 50-74 yards
(+++++)- 75-or-more yards
Other notes: A 75-yard TD gets (++++++++) and any pick-six/fumble recovery for a score results into (- – – – – – – -). Another example, if the defense forces a turnover and returns it for 50 yards, they will receive (- – – – – – -). If the defense forces a three-and-out they get a bonus of (- -).
KC 1st drive of second half: 15:00 left in the third quarter, ball at own 25 trailing 14-6
1+10 (25)- 10 personnel- Alex Smith zone read left tackle no gain (-)
2+10 (25)- 11 personnel- Smith throws it away (-)
3+10 (25)- 11 personnel- Maclin 12 yards (+)
1+10 (37)- 21 personnel- Holding Jah Raid (/)
1+20 (27)- 10 personnel- Chris Conley wide receiver screen left 10 yards (-)
2+10 (37)- 10 personnel- Justin Coleman holding (+)
1+10 (42)- 22 personnel- Knile Davis left guard five yards (+)
2+5 (47)- 12 personnel- Davis off left tackle 11 yards (+)
1+10 (42)- 11 personnel- Charcandrick West stretch left three yards (-)
2+8 (40)- 10 personnel- Davis dump off nine yards, fumble (—)
7-4 NE on drive
Dont’a Hightower stopped Smith for no gain on timed his blitz through the A-gap perfectly, slicing through the A-gap and darting right past 73 to for Smith to throw it away. This forced a 3rd-and-10, which the Chiefs converted with a deep out to Maclin for 12 yards. Because Maclin was lined up tight to the line of scrimmage, it gave him a lot more room to work with on the outbreaking cut. Pederson had Kansas City in a tight set with a stack to the left and Maclin to the right. Once Smith noticed the one on one matchup against Malcolm Butler, he looked Maclin’s way for the easy completion.
The Chiefs attempted to run the ball against the Patriots with a couple of power packages, two instances with a fullback in the backfield, although one play didn’t count due to a holding call. The other was out of a two tight end look. Davis picked up 16 yards on the two plays that counted. Kansas City lost possession when Davis fumbled after picking up nine yards on a dump off.
KC 2nd drive of second half: 8:24 left in the third quarter, ball at own 20 trailing 21-6
1+10 (20)- 11 personnel- West drops swing pass (-)
2+10 (20)- 10 personnel- West left guard three yards (-)
3+7 (23)- 12 personnel- Avant 26-yard reception (++)
1+10 (49)- 21 personnel- Davis left tackle two yards (-)
2+8 (49)- 11 personnel- Travis Kelce out route 13 yards (+)
1+10 (36)- 21 personnel- Davis swing pass right four yards (+)
2+6 (32)- 11 personnel- West left tackle three yards (/)
3+2 (29)- 10 personnel- Smith seven-yard scramble (+)
1+10 (22)- 11 personnel- West left tackle loss of a yard (-)
2+11 (23)- 11 personnel- Albert Wilson cross eight yards (+)
3+3 (15)- 11 personnel- quick out incomplete (-)
4+3 (15)- 11 personnel- Avant quick out five yards (+)
1+GL (10)- 10 personnel- Wilson out pattern touchdown (+++)
10-5 KC on drive, 14-12 KC in second half
Like the 3rd-and-7 conversion on the last drive, the Chiefs used a tight formation with two receivers stacked to the left and one to the right, except this time Maclin motioned from left to right. He got matched up one on one on Butler again and ran the same out pattern, but Butler had it covered. This forced Smith to scramble and evade three Patriots defenders before finding Jason Avant for a gain of 26 yards.
The Chiefs went for it on 4th-and-3 and converted after not being able to move the chains on 3rd-and-3. Pederson called a pair of quick outbreaking patterns. The first was a pick play with Wilson setting it for Conley, but Coleman came off Wilson to cut in front of Wilson and nearly intercept it. The second went to Avant, lined up furthest inside of a three wide receiver look off the left side.
Kansas City lined up tight on the touchdown, with a pair of stacked receivers on either side. Pederson is using the outbreaking pattern again against the Chiefs secondary, with Wilson hauling in the score. Maclin and Wilson, the outside receivers on the play, both ran out patterns, while Kelce and Avant ran hook patterns.
KC 3rd drive of second half: 14:46 left in the fourth quarter, ball at own 20 trailing 24-13
1+10 (20)- 10 personnel- West right guard one yard (-)
2+9 (21)- 11 personnel- Conley swing pass right loss of one (-)
3+10 (20)- 20 personnel- Smith sacked (-)
5-0 NE on drive, 17-14 NE in second half
I hated the execution of the Conley swing pass on second down. Once you saw him run well beyond the running back you knew he was getting the ball and by the time Smith did, there were multiple Patriots defenders waiting to bring him down in the right flat. Rob Ninkovich bull rushed Donald Stephenson right into Smith on third down, forcing the quarterback to trip over his feet.
KC 4th drive of second half: 10:20 left in the fourth quarter, ball at own 20 trailing 27-13
1+10 (20)- 11 personnel- West left flat nine yards (+)
2+1 (29)- 11 personnel- Kelce right flat no gain (/)
3+1 (29)- 10 personnel- Wilson quick slant eight yards (+)
1+10 (37)- 10 personnel- Wilson over the middle 12 yards (+)
1+10 (49)- 11 personnel- West right tackle no gain (-)
2+10 (49)- 11 personnel- Wilson comeback incomplete (-)
3+10 (49)- 11 personnel- Conley deep post incomplete (-)
4+10 (49)- 11 personnel- Duron Harmon interception (—)
6-3 NE on drive, 23-17 NE in second half
The Chiefs essentially abandoned the run over their last few drives against the stout front seven of the New England defense, even on third and shorts like the 3rd-and-1 on this possession. They were in 10 personnel on the quick slant to Wilson, who was the lone receiver on the right side of the field and matched up 1-on-1 against Butler.
Kelce appeared to be the primary target on third down, running a hook pattern right to the sticks, but he was double covered. Smith came back to the left and attempted to connect with Conley, but the hit by McCourty pried the ball loose. Stephenson struggled mightily against Ninkovich and even some help by Frankie Hammond via a chip block didn’t deter him from getting to Smith on fourth down and forcing the scramble prior to the interception by Duron Harmon.
KC 5th drive of second half: 6:29 left in the fourth quarter, ball at own 20 trailing 27-13
1+10 (20)- 11 personnel- Smith two-yard scramble (-)
2+8 (22)- 10 personnel- Wilson incomplete deep comeback (-)
3+8 (22)- 02 personnel- Conley deep comeback 16 yards (++)
1+10 (38)- 11 personnel- Wilson go route incomplete (-)
2+10 (38)- 11 personnel- Smith flushed right and finds Conley for two yards (-)
3+8 (40)- 10 personnel- Smith throwaway (-)
4+8 (40)- 10 personnel- Avant in route 13 yards (+)
1+10 (47)- 11 personnel- Smith nine-yard scramble (+)
2+1 (38)- 10 personnel– West over the middle six yards (+)
1+10 (32)- 02 personnel- Smith six-yard scramble (+)
2+4 (26)- 10 personnel- Smith six-yard scramble (+)
1+10 (20)- 10 personnel- Deep out Wilson 19 yards (++)
1+GL (1)- 11 personnel- West right guard loss of one yard (/)
2+GL (2)- 10 personnel- Eric Fisher false start (/)
2+GL (7)- 10 personnel- Avant angle route four yards (/)
3+GL (3)- 10 personnel- Pass interference Ryan (+)
1+GL (1)- 10 personnel- Conley incomplete fade from slot (/)
2+GL (1)- 10 personnel- West option one-yard touchdown (+++)
13-5 KC on drive, 30-28 KC in second half
West is lined up as a halfback on the first fourth down to help Stephenson combat with Ninkovich. This helped Smith have enough time in the pocket to find Avant, who made a sensational diving grab on an in route from the slot on Logan Ryan.
The Chiefs were at the New England one-yard line with 2:34 on the clock, so this is where I understand the frustration because it took 1:21 of game action to score a touchdown from a yard away when you’re down by 14. There was no sense of urgency whatsoever. Here are all the plays Kansas City ran from the one leading up to its touchdown.
Overall Thoughts:
While I understood the logic of keeping the ball out of Brady’s hands, Kansas City still could’ve scored sooner because it was at the one-yard line with a little more than 2:30 left. There was no sense of urgency whatsoever, the Chiefs were more concerned with being organized than wasting timeouts.
Ninkovich made mincemeat of Stephenson all game and it took Pederson a while to finally figure out how to handle the outside linebacker. This has been a bit of a dilemma during the entire play-calling series, handling pass rushers, especially gifted ones like Khalil Mack and Von Miller.
The Chiefs completely went away from the running game, which was a bit surprising because they found some success with it running out of power formations earlier in the second half. On mostly every 3rd-and-short, Pederson elected to call a pass play. He did a much better job on the 3rd-and-intermediate distances, calling a lot of outbreaking patterns against one-on-one coverage against New England’s cornerbacks.
I’m stuck in the middle on Pederson’s performance. There was some good, there was some bad, I gave him a B-.
WEEK 9: BYE
BRONCOS WEEK 10 GAME GRADE: C-
CHARGERS WEEK 11 GAME GRADE: D+
TEXANS WILD CARD PLAYOFF GRADE: A+