Adrian Fedkiw
Each day leading up to the official start of the NFL football season, I will be providing you with player rankings, team previews, analysis, predictions, opinions and a whole lot more.
Andrew Luck made baby steps in his progression as a pro before taking a huge leap backwards a year ago.
He missed nine games a year ago due to numerous injuries and the Indianapolis Colts severely underachieved, finishing 8-8 and missing the playoffs following an AFC Championship appearance the year prior. Luck was a turnover machine a year ago, posting 12 interceptions and three fumbles in the seven contests he played.
Luck’s abomination of an offensive line didn’t help the proceedings either. It’s why the Colts used four draft picks on linemen. There were breakdowns galore in that unit last season.
In all, Luck’s fourth season had some similarities to Peyton Manning’s fourth year in the league in terms of the turnover department when Manning tossed 26 touchdowns and 23 interceptions.
Perhaps some better luck will be in store for 2016 — couldn’t help myself.
Grading the Roster
QBs- Andrew Luck (8.8), Scott Tolzien (7.1)
RBs- Frank Gore (7.3), Robert Turbin (7.2), Jordan Todman (7.2)
WRs- T.Y. Hilton (7.8), Donte Moncrief (7.4), Phillip Dorsett (7.3), Brian Tyms (7.1)
TEs- Dwayne Allen (7.4), Jack Doyle (7.2)
Ts- Anthony Castonzo (7.5), Joe Reitz (7.2), Le’Raven Clark (7.2)
Gs- Jack Mewhort (7.5), Hugh Thornton (7.2), Denzelle Good (7.2)
Cs- Ryan Kelly (7.4), Austin Blythe (7.1)
DEs- Arthur Jones (7.3), Kendall Langford (7.3), Henry Anderson (7.5), Hassan Ridgeway (7.1)
NTs- David Parry (7.3), Zach Kerr (7.2)
OLBs- Trent Cole (7.5), Erik Walden (7.4), Robert Mathis (7.3), Antonio Morrison (7.1)
ILBs- D’Qwell Jackson (7.4), Nate Irving (7.3), Sio Moore (7.3), Hassan Ridgeway (7.1)
CBs- Vontae Davis (8), Patrick Robinson (7.5), Darius Butler (7.2), D’Joun Smith (7.2)
Ss- Mike Adams (7.3), Clayton Geathers (7.2), T.J. Green (7.2)
K- Adam Vinatieri (7.4)
P- Pat McAfee (7.5)
KR- Quan Bray (7.3)
PR- Quan Bray (7.3)
Team Rankings
Team- 7.375 (19/32)
Offense- 7.454 (9/32)
Defense- 7.314 (29/32)
Quarterbacks- 7.95 (4/32)
Running Backs- 7.23 (30/32)
Receivers- 7.37 (23/32)
Offensive Line- 7.29 (26/32)
Defensive Line- 7.28 (12/16)
Linebackers- 7.29 (14/16)
Secondary- 7.37 (16/32)
Special Teams- 7.38
Head Coach- 7.3
PREDICTION– 7-9 (3rd AFC South)
QUARTERBACKS
The 2015 campaign came a year after Luck led the NFL with 40 touchdown passes in 2014. I’m not going to let one disappointing year deter how I feel about Luck, who might’ve had the greatest three-year start of any quarterback ever.
As previously mentioned, his offensive line flat out stinks and Luck overcomes that with his ability to extend plays. Like Aaron Rodgers, Luck is equally adept at being a pocket passer and throwing on the move. Luck’s touch is excellent, understanding trajectory and how to drop a ball over a trailing defender. He leads receivers so they catch them in stride. Luck might be the toughest quarterback in terms of hanging in the pocket, which gives his receivers as much time to get open as possible. He sidesteps pressure up the middle and steps up in it to avoid edge rushers. There are other quarterbacks who have more arm strength that Luck, but it’s still above average. Lucks accuracy wasn’t on point last year, overthrowing a bunch of targets, which led to interceptions.
Matt Hasselbeck retired during the offseason and former Green Bay Packer Scott Tolzien will back Luck up, while Stephen Morris will be the third stringer.
RUNNING BACKS
The aging Frank Gore struggled in his first season in Indianapolis, tallying just 3.7 yards per carry and didn’t put up over 100 yards in a game all season. The 32-year-old enters his 12th season.
Robert Turbin and Jordan Todman are the primary backs behind Gore and both have shown skill in prior seasons, but neither have what it takes to be feature backs.
RECEIVERS
Deep threat T.Y. Hilton still had a productive season despite being without Luck for more than half the season. He recorded 69 receptions for 1,124 yards and five touchdowns with a whopping 16.3 yards per catch average. He’s short and scrawny, but so quick and so fast and there is a difference between the two. But because of his diminutive stature, he does sometimes struggle against bigger press corners. But he can track the deep ball with the best of them.
Donte Moncrief is the No. 2 wideout heading into his third season and is underrated. He made nice strides in his second year, hauling in 64 passes for 733 yards and six scores. He has great hands, evidenced by just four drops, and can make tough catches in tight areas. He’s not the most fluid route runner, but has good change of direction skills. Philip Dorsett wasn’t much of a factor in his rookie season, but the Colts are hoping that the speed demon can contribute a lot more during his sophomore campaign.
Dwayne Allen doesn’t have to share snaps with Coby Fleener anymore, he’s now in Tampa Bay. The tight end has the physical tools, he just needs to stay healthy. Jack Doyle steps into the backup role following Fleener’s departure.
OFFENSIVE LINEMEN
Left tackle Anthony Castonzo and left guard Jack Mewhort are solid, but there’s not much else among the Colts offensive line.
Castonzo is a very good pass protector who plays with balance and really does an efficient job with his hand placement. This allows him to effectively control his defender. He’s been consistently effective since coming into the league from Boston College. His run blocking is solid, but not up to the level of his pass protection.
Mewhort is at his best run blocking and is a technician using his feet and putting himself in the proper position, although his pulling skills need work. He doesn’t physically maul you or anything. Pass protection was his weakness prior to his move to left guard, but showed improvements in this area last season.
First-round rookie Ryan Kelly is expected to step in and not only start, but provide immediate production. Hugh Thornton and Denzelle Good are in a battle for the right guard spot, while Joe Reitz appears to have a leg-up on the right tackle job. The other draft picks on the offensive line include third-round tackle Le’Raven Clark, fifth-round tackle Joe Haeg and seventh-round center Austin Blythe.
DEFENSIVE LINEMEN
Defensive end Kendall Langford was effective in his first season with the Colts, posting a career-high seven sacks. He uses his length to his advantage and maintains good leverage. He’s crafty and quick as well. In run defense, Langford uses his length and wingspan to bring down a ball carrier or close a hole.
Arthur Jones was the starter opposite Langford last year, but is suspended for his first four games. Zach Kerr will start for him, but the player to watch is Henry Anderson, who had an outstanding rookie season before tearing his ACL midway through the year. David Parry held his own as the starting nose tackle last year.
LINEBACKERS
Outside linebacker Robert Mathis had seven sacks coming off his Achilles injury, but how much does he have left. Trent Cole was a disappointment in his first season for the Colts, registering just three sacks and seven quarterback hits. The starter alongside Mathis, Erik Walden, is serviceable, but doesn’t do anything great and isn’t a great pass rusher.
D’Qwell Jackson remains a tackling machine with a team-leading 150, but his pass coverage skills are severely limited. The Colts will miss the services of Jerrell Freeman, who is the most underrated inside linebacker in the league and someone I had ranked at No. 5 in my rankings. Nate Irving will fill in for Freeman as the starter.
DEFENSIVE BACKS
Vontae Davis didn’t replicate his 2014 season in 2015, but let’s take a look back at the 2014 campaign for a second. I don’t think people realize how good of a season Davis had that year. He led all cornerbacks in passer rating against at just 38.8. He also allowed the fewest percentage of completions at 43.7 percent, giving up just 31 catches on 71 targets.
He’s physical at the line of scrimmage and also has the quickness to shadow receivers out of their breaks. His hips are fluid and his recovery speed is explosive. Davis is also an excellent tackler, after the catch and as an edge run defender.
Late signee Antonio Cromartie and Patrick Robinson provide a nice trio at cornerback, despite Cromartie having a down season with the Jets last year. Robinson struggled in New Orleans, but saw his career take off a bit in San Diego. He has the physical talent, but his ball skills were lacking those first couple of seasons. Darius Butler is a good slot option.
Hard-hatting second-year player Clayton Geathers and Mike Adams will be the starters at safety, but I’ll be interested to see what second-round rookie T.J. Green can provide. His 4.34 40-yard dash time greatly elevated his stock at the combine.
TEAM PREVIEWS
Buffalo Bills | New England Patriots | Miami Dolphins | New York Jets
Baltimore Ravens | Cincinnati Bengals | Pittsburgh Steelers
NFL PLAYER RANKINGS