Tim O'Keefe
Blog Record: 143-105*
*Had an error in Monday’s posted record which has now been fixed.
As fun as it is to go to weddings and have things to do in the summer, I can’t explain how happy it makes me there’s finally a weekend to just sit in and relax. I get why it happens, but people need to stop scheduling things for every weekend in the summer. It’s the best time of year, and it seems like everyone’s calendar is packed to the point where you can’t even enjoy it.
Well, thankfully this weekend I’m free and that let’s me get back to what I love – writing a Saturday Six-Pack!
Let’s get to it!
MLB: Nationals vs. Orioles – 6:35 P.M. ET
It’s pretty crazy to think about, but there is a chance this is the last time we see Mad Max Scherzer pitching in a Washington Nationals uniform. The team keeps drifting further out of the playoff race (currently six games out in the NL East), and rumor has it that if the team becomes sellers, Scherzer might be their biggest piece to move. The three-time Cy Young winner has actually struggled in his last two outings, but I’m not expecting that to be the case against the Orioles today.
This has all the makings of a Nationals blowout: Scherzer’s potential last game, the Nationals coming off a loss last night to a pathetic Orioles club, and Matt Harvey (7.13 ERA) is pitching for Baltimore. I expect Scherzer and the Nats to come out with something to prove in this one, and that it could get ugly early.
Take Nationals -1.5 (-130).
Check out the latest odds here.
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MLB: Blue Jays vs. Mets – 7:10 P.M. ET
While Taijuan Walker is still an elite signing by the Mets this off-season at a great price, the shine is starting to wear off a little bit. Walker had carried an ERA in the low twos for most of this season, but recently has had some bad starts and it continues to rise up closer to three. The Blue Jays on the other side have one of the better offenses in the league, yet were shut out last night in New York.
The Blue Jays are favored on the road in this match-up, and I feel that is driven by an offense ready to bust out of a minor slump.
Take the Blue Jays TT Over 4.5.
Check out the latest odds here.
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MLB: White Sox vs. Brewers – 7:10 P.M. ET
Best pitching matchup of the night comes to us from Milwaukee when Carlos Rodon and Corbin Burnes take the mound for their respective clubs. Neither one of these two are the betting favorite to bring home the Cy Young in their league at the moment, but I’m not going to be surprised at all if either one is able to hold those trophies come October.
Both pitchers have been great all season, and also great as of late, with both going over 13 innings and allowing only one earned run in each of their last two starts. I think this starting pitching matchup lives up to the hype, so I’m taking under 3.5 in the first five innings.
Take under 3.5 runs in F5 innings.
Check out the latest odds here.
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MLB: Angels vs. Twins – 7:11 P.M. ET
The first two games of this series have not gone the way the series long trends would have expected. I’m not talking about wins and losses, but rather over and unders. These two teams are the highest over hitting teams in baseball coming into this series (Twins #1, Angels #2), yet both of the first two games have gone under the total. Ohtani wasn’t in the lineup for the Angels yesterday, and the Twins did trade Nelson Cruz to the Rays during this stretch, but I’m still not buying into the idea that both of these pitching staffs and bullpens have figured it out.
I’m expecting the series long trends to pick back up tonight with some runs scoring, hence why I’m taking over nine total runs in the game.
Take the over nine runs.
Check out the latest odds here.
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MLB: Pirates vs. Giants – 9:05 P.M. ET
The Pirates were able to sneak out the first game of this series in San Francisco last night, 6-4, but today, they are running into Kevin Gausman, who is a Cy Young candidate, and a Giants team that is looking to rebound/hold onto that best record in the NL West. Gausman has been nothing short of elite this season, with an ERA at 1.84 and Whip at 0.85. On the other side, Will Crowe looks a lot like Gausman from years past, with a ERA over six and simply abysmal numbers across the board.
Standard moneyline is over -250 for the Giants and that’s to steep for me. Therefore, I’m going to lay the 1.5 runs and get that down to -125 odds because I’m expecting a blowout today.
Take the Giants -1.5 (-125).
Check out the latest odds here.
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MLB: Rockies vs. Dodgers – 9:10 P.M. ET
As you can probably tell by some of my earlier picks, there are a lot of games that I think could turn ugly tonight, and this is another one. Kyle Freeland is pitching against the Dodgers (which typically would be enough for me), but LA has also lost three straight, and just saw Freeland last week. Freeland doesn’t have any special stuff, and if you look at his velocity/movement rates, blends in more with the Triple-A club than the Major League team.
The Dodgers are going to get out of this funk tonight, and one way that I found to play them at plus money is a same game parlay on DraftKings Sportsbook. When we take the Dodgers to score first and win the game, they jump to a +110 from their standard ML at -250. Essentially, this bet all hinges on Tony Gonsolin being able to hold Colorado to zero in the first inning, as I think LA will get to Freeland early.
Take the Dodgers to score first and win (+110).
Check out the latest odds here.
Lets have a great Saturday and get some winners! Good luck on your picks!
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
You can follow Tim O’Keefe on Twitter (@TKO_Picks) and e-mail him at [email protected].
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